摘要
目的利用临床病理因素建立模型来预测食管癌肺转移患者的预后情况。方法收集美国国家癌症研究所监测、流行病学和最终结果(SEER)数据库中2010—2015年194例食管癌肺转移患者的信息。通过X-tile软件确定年龄的最佳截断值。通过SPSS(v25.0)用log-rank方法和Cox比例风险模型分析预后因素。单因素分析有意义的变量通过R studio软件(版本号3.5.1)构建预测列线图。结果194例食管癌肺转移患者中位生存时间为7.0个月,3个月生存率为69.9%,1年生存率为27.7%。年龄(HR=1.51,95%CI:1.066~2.140)、病理类型(HR=0.736,95%CI:0.543~0.998)为食管癌肺转移患者预后的独立影响因素。列线图C-index值为0.634(95%CI:0.585~0.683)。结论对于食管癌肺转移患者,年轻、病理类型为腺癌与更好的预后相关。列线图的预测效果良好。
Objective To establish a prediction model for the prognosis of patients with esophageal cancer lung metastasis.Methods Data from 194 patients with esophageal cancer lung metastasis from 2010 to 2015 was collected from the National Cancer Institute Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results(SEER) database. The best cutoff value for age was determined by X-tile software.Prognostic factors were analyzed by SPSS(v25.0) with the log-rank method and the Cox proportional hazard model. Risk factors from univariate analysis were used to construct prediction nomogram with R studio software(version 3.5.1). Results The median survival time of 194 patients with esophageal cancer lung metastasis was 7.0 months, the 3-month survival rate was 69.9%, and the 1-year survival rate was 27.7%. Age(HR=1.51, 95% CI: 1.066-2.140) and pathological type(HR=0.736, 95% CI: 0.543-0.998) were independent prognostic factors for patients with esophageal cancer lung metastasis. The value of C-index was 0.634(95% CI=0.585-0.683). Conclusion For patients with esophageal cancer lung metastasis, being young and adenocarcinoma are associated with a better prognosis. The prediction of the nomogram is good.
作者
程志远
张啸天
孟茜茜
王天骄
林寒
辛磊
张玲
王洛伟
李兆申
CHENG Zhi-yuan;ZHANG Xiao-tian;MENG Qian-qian;WANG Tian-jiao;LIN Han;XIN Lei;ZHANG Ling;WANG Luo-wei;LI Zhao-shen(College of Basic Medical Sciences,Naval Medical University,Shanghai 200433,China)
出处
《中国实用内科杂志》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2019年第7期613-617,共5页
Chinese Journal of Practical Internal Medicine
关键词
食管癌
肿瘤转移:SEER数据库
预后分析
肺
esophageal cancer
neoplasm metastasis
SEER database
prognosis analysis
lung
