摘要
目的分析食管癌肝转移的预后相关影响因素,建立有效的预测模型。方法通过美国国立癌症研究所建立的监测、流行病学和结果(SEER)stat 8.3.5软件从SEER数据库收集了2010—2015年的464例食管癌肝转移病例的数据。SPSS(v25.0)用于分析预后因素。Kaplan-Meier曲线用于生存分析。在Cox比例风险模型引入了单因素分析的有意义变量,获得食管癌肝转移的独立预后影响因素,然后通过加速失效模型构建列线图。结果患者的平均生存时间11.0个月(95%CI:10.075~13.209),1年、3年、5年的生存率分别为29.4%、5.5%和0。年龄(HR=1.452,95%CI:1.175~1.795),婚姻(HR=0.753,95%CI:0.611~0.927)和手术(HR=0.428,95%CI:0.227~0.807)为患者的独立预后影响因素。列线图内部验证一致性指数(C-index)的值为0.614。结论食管癌肝转移的预后差,低龄、已婚、手术与更长的生存期有关,经验证列线图预测效果良好。
Objective To analyze the prognostic factors related to liver metastasis of esophageal cancer and establish an effective prediction model. Methods The data of 464 cases of esophageal cancer with liver metastasis from 2010 to 2015 was collected from the National Cancer Institute SEER database by SEER stat 8.3.5 software. SPSS(v25.0) was used to analyze the prognostic factors of esophageal cancer liver metastasis and Kaplan-Meier curve was used for survival analysis. We introduced the meaningful variables of single factor analysis in Cox proportional hazard model and multivariate analysis and obtained the independent influencing factors of prognosis.Independent factors were then included in the accelerated failure time model to construct the nomogram. Results The mean survival time of patients in this study was 11.6 months(95%CI: 10.075-13.209), and their 1-, 3-, and 5-year survival rates were 29.4%, 5.5%, and 0,respectively. Age(HR=1.452, 95% CI: 1.175-1.795), marriage(HR=0.753, 95%CI: 0.611-0.927) and surgery(HR=0.428, 95% CI: 0.227-0.807) were independent prognostic factors for patients. We constructed the nomogram with risk factors of prognosis, and the C-index value was 0.614. Conclusion The prognosis of esophageal cancer liver metastasis is poor. being young, Being married, and surgery are associated with better survival, and the nomogram we have constructed is proved to have good predictive ability.
作者
张子凡
程志远
孟茜茜
王天骄
林寒
辛磊
张玲
王洛伟
李兆申
ZHANG Zifan;CHENG Zhi-yuan;MENG Qian-qian;WANG Tian-jiao;LIN Han;XIN Lei;ZHANG Ling;WANG Luo-wei;LI Zhao-shen(College of Basic Medical Sciences,Naval Medical University,Shanghai 200433,China)
出处
《中国实用内科杂志》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2019年第7期618-623,共6页
Chinese Journal of Practical Internal Medicine
关键词
食管癌
肿瘤转移
SEER数据库
预后分析
列线图
esophageal cancer
neoplasm metastasis
SEER database
prognosis analysis
nomogram
