摘要
特朗普再次执政冲击了全球经济稳定,美国利用关税武器进行经济胁迫,以及“泛安全化”和地缘政治化的贸易政策所产生的破坏性,使全球价值链韧性议题成为争论焦点。实际上,全球价值链作为一个多层次和多节点的复杂网络,具有适应美国贸易政策武器化带来冲击的能力。美国经济深度嵌入全球价值链,其国内不同层次群体的利益冲突以及国家层面经济利益和战略目标之间的权衡,都能够制约激进贸易政策的冲击强度。同时,全球市场结构的去中心化和贸易合作网络的多中心化,以及全球价值链主要节点应对美国关税冲击能力的增强,也能缓冲美国贸易政策武器化带来的震荡。制约机制和缓冲机制构成了全球价值链韧性的基础条件,并在2025年特朗普关税冲击的经验现实中得到初步检验。面对美国贸易政策可能长期出现的武器化趋势,新兴和发展中经济体需要培育消费市场以增强议价能力,加强价值链合作以提高抗风险能力,积极推动普惠包容的新型经济全球化,从而增强全球价值链的韧性。
Donald Trump's return to the White House has once again destabilized the global economy.The destructive impact of the U.S.use of tariffs as a weapon for economic coercion,along with its“pan-securitized”and geopoliticized trade policy,has made the resilience of global value chains a focus of debate.As a multilevel and multi-node complex network,the global value chains can adapt to the shocks caused by the weaponization of the U.S.trade policy.The U.S.economy is deeply embedded in global value chains,and therefore,conflicts of interest among different domestic groups,as well as the trade-offs between economic interests and strategic goals at the national level,can constrain the intensity of shocks from its radical trade policy.Meanwhile,the decentralization of the global market structure,the multi-centralization of trade cooperation networks,and the enhanced capacity of major nodes in global value chains to respond to U.S.tariff shocks can also buffer the volatility caused by the weaponization of the U.S. tradepolicy. These constraining and buffering mechanisms form the foundation for theresilience of global value chains, which have so far withstood Trump's tariffshocks in 2025. In the face of a possible long-term weaponization of the U.S. tradepolicy, emerging and developing economies need to foster consumer markets toenhance their bargaining power, strengthen value chain cooperation to improverisk resistance, and actively promote a new type of universally beneficial andinclusive economic globalization, thereby enhancing the resilience of global valuechains.
出处
《外交评论(外交学院学报)》
北大核心
2025年第4期76-101,I0003,I0004,共28页
Foreign Affairs Review
基金
国家社会科学基金青年项目“全球价值链结构性变化影响中国经济安全的机制与对策研究”(项目编号:21CGJ020)的阶段性成果。
