摘要
众所周知,国际环境对“全球南方”国家的发展有着巨大影响,辨析国际局势走向也往往是这些国家制定发展战略的首要任务。当代世界的一个显著特征是,零和博弈乃至负和博弈行为不断增多,以至于出现了从以发展为导向的世界向“泛安全化”世界转变的迹象。“泛安全化”世界的基本特征是负和博弈与双输,在这样的世界中,安全边界的模糊导致国际合作弱化;成本收益考量让位于负和博弈逻辑,导致行为体的行为极端化;对“规避损失”的重视正逐渐压倒对“获取收益”的考虑,导致行为体的行为短期化;价值观外交盛行,导致国际关系趋于阵营化和孤岛化。事实上,处于差异性发展阶段的“全球南方”国家,在不同的理想世界中有着迥异的发展战略。历史经验表明,在发展占主导地位的世界中,“全球南方”国家只要改变自己、融入世界就能获得较高收益,其中,中等收入国家获益最大。但是,在一个“泛安全化”趋势上升、负和博弈行为盛行的世界中,“全球南方”国家需要重构自身的战略选择,即重构“中心—边缘”结构中的“中间国家”角色、重构迈向现代化的知识体系和发展道路、重构“南南合作”模式、重构全球价值链的各个环节,才能在国际体系中寻求更大的发展空间。
It is widely acknowledged that the international environment greatly impacts the development of countries in the Global South,and analyzing future dynamics of the international situation is often the primary task for these countries when formulating development strategies.A prominent feature of the contemporary world is the increasing prevalence of zero-sum and even negativesum behaviors,leading to signs of a shift from a development-oriented world to a world where the national security concept is increasingly overstretched.The defining features of such an overstretching-security world are negative-sum games and lose-lose outcomes.In such a world,the blurring of security boundaries leads to weakened cooperation;the cost-benefit logic gives way to negative-sum game logic,leading to extreme behaviors by actors;the emphasis on"avoiding losses"increasingly outweighs the consideration of"gaining benefits",resulting in short-term behaviors by actors;the prevalence of valuesbased diplomacy has led to the camp-based and islanding tendency in international relations.In reality,countries in the Global South,at different development stages,have vastly different development strategies in different ideal scenarios.Experience from history shows that in a development-oriented world,countries in the Global South can achieve significant gains by transforming themselves and integrating into the world,with middle-income countries benefiting the most.However,in a world where the trend of overstretching the national security concept is on the rise and negative-sum behaviors are prevalent,countries in the Global South need to reconstruct their strategic choices,that is,redefine the role of an intermediary country in the"center-periphery"structure,reconstruct the knowledge systems and development paths toward modernization,reconstruct the model of"South-South cooperation",and restructure various links of the global value chain,so as to seek greater development space within the international system.
出处
《外交评论(外交学院学报)》
北大核心
2025年第2期92-121,I0004,共31页
Foreign Affairs Review
基金
国家社科基金重大项目“百年变局与中国周边安全新态势研究”(项目编号:23&ZD331)的阶段性成果。
关键词
“全球南方”
大国战略竞争
“泛安全化”
成本收益逻辑
负和博弈
Global South
major power strategic competition
overstretching security
cost-benefit logic
negative-sum game
