摘要
促进绿色低碳转型是消费领域的一场深刻变革,低碳行为选择对减少消费端温室气体(GHG)排放、实现碳中和愿景意义重大.本研究建立了系统估计线上与线下商品零售和餐饮消费的GHG排放的方法,以北京为例,通过16万次蒙特卡洛模拟仿真实验,评估了不同消费模式下的GHG排放量,并深入分析了低碳消费的减排策略选择.平均来看,线上商品零售和餐饮外卖方式的GHG排放量要高于传统线下方式,线上消费的高排放主要来源于包裹的运输和包装,而线下消费的排放则很大程度归因于消费者购物和餐饮途中的交通方式.研究构建了距离-排放曲线,揭示了线上线下消费选择应遵循的临界点,即线上或线下消费方式的低碳程度与消费者距商店或餐厅的距离及其出行的交通方式有关.若消费者步行或者公共交通出行,线下消费的方式一般更为低碳;而若距商店或餐厅离较远,消费者自驾出行时,则线上的方式更加低碳.包装、运输、配送、出行方式以及消费行为等的低碳化是有效的GHG减排策略,研究结果显示,不同的策略选择可将商品或餐饮消费的GHG排放最高降低94%.
Low-carbon transformation is a profound change in consumption patterns.Low-carbon behavior choices are of great significance for reducing greenhouse gas(GHG)emissions and achieving carbon neutrali-ty.This paper proposes a method for systematically estimating the GHG emissions of online and offline retail and catering consumption.Taking Beijing as an example,this paper conducts 160000 Monte Carlo simulation experiments to account for GHG emissions under different consumption styles and then analyzes the emission reduction strategies of low-carbon consumption.On average,the GHG emissions from online retail and food delivery are higher than those from traditional offline consumption.The high emissions of online consumption mainly come from the transportation and packaging of express delivery,while the emissions of ofline consump-tion largely result from consumers'trips during shopping and catering.The study develops a distance-emission curve,revealing the critical point that online and offline consumption choices should follow.The results show that the low-carbon intensity of online or offline consumption is related to the distance between consumers and shops or restaurants,as well as the mode of transportation.If consumers walk or travel by public transporta-tion,offline consumption is generally more low-carbon.However,if the store or restaurant is far away and the consumer drives,online consumption will be more low-carbon.Reducing the GHG emissions from packaging,transportation,delivery,travel,and consumption behavior is an effective reduction strategy.The results show that diferent strategy choices can reduce GHG emissions from goods or foods consumption by up to 94%.
作者
杨弦
史锟洋
林志杰
段宏波
YANG Xian;SHI Kun-yang;LIN Zhi-jie;DUAN Hong-bo(School of Economics and Management,China University of Petroleum,Beijing 102249,China;School of Management Science and Engineering,Dongbei University of Finance and Economics,Dalian 116024,China;School of Economics and Management,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China;School of Economics and Management,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190,China)
出处
《管理科学学报》
北大核心
2025年第7期39-52,共14页
Journal of Management Sciences in China
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(72101051,72325002,72325008,72022007).
关键词
绿色经济
低碳消费
电子商务
餐饮外卖
减排策略
green economy
low-carbon consumption
electronic commerce
food delivery
emission reduction strategy
