摘要
区域贸易协定(RTA)是当前国际合作的主要平台,也是数字经济时代贸易投资规则签署的主要载体,RTA中与数字经济和贸易相关的规则如何影响货物出口贸易流量和结构这一问题尤为重要。本文基于2003—2022年与中国具有贸易往来的贸易伙伴国国家—产品层面贸易数据,考察了区域贸易协定中数字贸易规则对中国出口货物贸易的影响效应及其机制。结果发现,第一,数字贸易规则通过降低贸易成本、优化贸易模式、改变贸易内容以及促进数字投入要素进口来促进货物出口贸易;第二,数字贸易规则对货物贸易量促进作用更强,且贸易对象数字化规则促进作用更为明显;第三,数字贸易规则签署能一定程度缓解经济发展差距、“数字鸿沟”、经济制度差距等对出口贸易的抑制效应。将RTA样本扩展至全球,本文主要结论仍然成立。本文研究对优化RTA布局、揭示数字贸易规则的影响机制和效应以及促进贸易高质量发展具有一定启示。
The report to the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China(CPC)explicitly advocates for promoting high-level opening-up,emphasizing the steady expansion of institutional openness in areas such as rules,regulations,management,and standards,alongside the optimization and upgrading of goods trade and the advancement of digital trade.As a critical component of the national economy,goods trade faces mounting challenges amid increasing uncertainty in the global trade environment and growing downward pressure on the domestic economy.These conditions underscore the urgent need to enhance quality and efficiency through institutional innovation.The rapid development of digital trade rules offers a novel institutional pathway to address the structural dilemmas of traditional goods trade.By re⁃ducing trade barriers and enabling the digital transformation of trade processes and supply chains,these rules are expected to inject new momentum into building China into a strong trading nation.Against this backdrop,a systematic evaluation of the impact of digital trade rules on goods exports is essential not only for advancing theoretical understanding of institu⁃tional openness but also for providing practical insights into improving trade policy and governance.This paper investigates the impact of digital trade rules embedded in regional trade agreements(RTAs)on China’s goods export trade and its underlying mechanisms,using country-product level trade data from China’s trading partners during 2003-2022.The empirical findings are as follows.Firstly,digital trade rules facilitate goods exports by reducing trade costs,optimizing trade structures,altering trade composition,and promoting the import of digital input factors.Sec⁃ondly,these rules exert a stronger effect on export volume than on trade value,with more pronounced impacts when trad⁃ing partners have well-developed digital rules.Thirdly,the adoption of digital trade rules can partially mitigate negative effects on exports stemming from disparities in economic development,digital divides,and differences in institutional sys⁃tems.Moreover,the main findings remain robust when the RTA sample is extended to the global level.Compared with existing studies,the marginal contributions of this paper are as follows.Firstly,while existing litera⁃ture primarily focuses on the impact of digital trade rules on digital trade and services trade,research on their effects on goods trade remains limited.This paper addresses this gap by examining the effect of digital trade provisions in RTAs on trade in goods and its mechanisms,thereby contributing to the understanding of how digital rules can empower traditional goods trade and support the development of a strong trading nation.Secondly,existing studies mainly analyze the impact of digital trade rules through the lens of trade cost reduction.Building on this,this paper explores additional transmission channels,including the optimization of trade patterns,changes in trade composition,and the promotion of digital input imports.These mechanisms highlight the distinct pathways through which digital trade rules influence goods exports,dis⁃tinguishing them from other RTA provisions.Thirdly,this paper conducts a heterogeneity analysis based on destination country characteristics,including economic development,internet infrastructure gaps,and institutional distance.It re⁃veals the differentiated effects of digital trade rules on exports across partner countries and provides a theoretical founda⁃tion for understanding how international economic and trade rules reshape global trade patterns in the digital economy era.This paper offers several key policy implications.Firstly,digital trade rules should be actively promoted in RTAs by incorporating relevant provisions into ongoing and future negotiations and exploring bilateral cooperation where such rules are absent.Secondly,the implementation and depth of existing digital provisions should be strengthened and aligned with high-standard international rules.Thirdly,efforts should be made to enhance digital infrastructure,narrow the digital di⁃vide,and share China’s development experience with countries along the Belt and Road to expand the global applicability of its digital standards.Finally,domestic digital governance frameworks should be improved to support the effective implementation of digital trade rules.
作者
钟腾龙
张晓涛
毕文静
ZHONG Tenglong;ZHANG Xiaotao;BI Wenjing(Central University of Finance and Economics,Beijing,China;Shandong University of Finance and Economics,Jinan,China)
出处
《经济学动态》
北大核心
2025年第8期172-190,共19页
Economic Perspectives
基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目“全球经贸规则体系变化趋势及对我国高水平开放的影响与对策研究”(24&ZD053)
中央财经大学“菁英学者”支持计划。
关键词
区域贸易协定
数字贸易规则
货物出口贸易
贸易模式
Regional Trade Agreements(RTAs)
Digital Trade Rules
Export Trade of Goods
Trade Mode
