摘要
城市收缩是一个复杂且多维度的社会经济现象,其涉及人口数量、经济发展、社会结构变迁、环境可持续性等多个方面。在此背景下,文章依据第七次全国人口普查数据,以10年为样本周期,选取2011年至2020年数据作为研究基础,以吉林省38个县域城市为研究对象,建立经济、社会、人口多维度的综合指标评价体系。利用双栏模型,从人口结构、产业结构、消费能力、社会保障等7个方面进行城市收缩的影响因素分析。通过对县域城市多维度的收缩识别及双栏模型分析,可以精准定义县域城市收缩类型、范围及收缩程度,为吉林省县域城市收缩提供研究依据,并进一步从影响城市收缩因素的角度提出优化城市发展空间,积极应对城市收缩的策略。
Urban shrinkage is a complex,multidimensional socio-economic phenomenon that encompasses various facets,including population size,economic development,shifts in social structure,and environmental sustainability.Against this backdrop,the article utilizes data from the Seventh National Population Census,adopting a 10-year period as the sample cycle and employing data from 2011 to 2020 as the research foundation.It selects 38 county-level cities in Jilin Province as the research subjects and constructs a comprehensive indicator evaluation system that spans economic,social,and demographic dimensions.By employing a double-hurdle model,it examines the influencing factors of urban shrinkage from seven perspectives:population structure,industrial structure,consumption capacity,social security,and others.Through a multidimensional identification of county-level urban shrinkage and an analysis using the double-hurdle model,the study accurately delineates the types,scope,and degree of county-level urban shrinkage,thereby providing a research basis for understanding urban shrinkage in the county-level cities of Jilin Province.Furthermore,it proposes strategies for optimizing urban development space and actively addressing urban shrinkage,taking into account the factors that influence it.
作者
张琦琦
李冰心
ZHANG Qiqi;LI Bingxin
出处
《小城镇建设》
2025年第7期21-31,共11页
DEVELOPMENT OF SMALL CITIES & TOWNS
基金
吉林省科技厅重点研发项目“基于多源数据的寒地城市碳排放核算关键技术研发与应用”(编号:202403044142SF)。
关键词
县域城市收缩
综合测度
双栏模型
吉林省
county-level urban shrinkage
comprehensive measurement
double-hurdle model
Jilin Province
