摘要
利用系统动力学(SD)的原理和方法,发展了区域土地利用情景变化SD模型.在不同系统状态下,模拟了中国北方13省未来50年不同社会经济情景下的区域土地利用结构变化,并初步评价了这些变化的可能生态影响.1990～2001年的模型结果表明该SD模型具有一定的可靠性,能在一定程度上为当前理解土地利用系统的复杂驱动行为,评估脆弱生态区土地系统变化的潜在生态效应提供帮助.2000～2050年的情景仿真结果表明,经济、人口、市场和技术等因素对中国北方13省未来土地利用变化的影响非常明显.
Modeling land use scenarios change and its impact in typical regions are helpful to investigate the interactive mechanism between land use system and terrestrial ecosystem, and optimize land use pattern and reduce potential ecological risk in the process of future land use. A System Dynamic (SD) model aims at modeling land use scenarios change and assessing its ecological impact in the northern China in the next 50 years is developed in this paper. The accuracy assessment with historical data covering 1990 to 2001 indicated the SD model is reliable. After the different 'what-if' scenarios controlled by GDP, population, market and technology advancement were built, the different land use scenarios changes in the northern China from 2000 to 2050 were simulated with their ecological impact assessment. The result suggested that such factors as GDP, population, market and technology have good relationship with land use structure change in the northern China. It also indicated that such measures as strictly controlling population growth, importing proper amount of grain from other regions in addition to increasing per unit area grain yield to keep supply-demand balance in the region, and improving agricultural technology are the guarantee to the regional sustainable development with fast economic growth and obvious land use structure improvement at the same time.
出处
《地理学报》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2004年第4期599-607,共9页
Acta Geographica Sinica
基金
国家重点基础研究发展规划项目(G1999043406-03
G2000018604)~~
