摘要
从中东进行战略收缩构成奥巴马、特朗普和拜登三届美国政府中东政策的共同目标,其根本目标在于摆脱中东对美国战略资源的过分牵制,将更多战略资源转向威胁美国全球领导地位的大国战略竞争。从总体原则、巴以问题、伊朗问题等主要议题,分析特朗普第一任期和拜登时期的中东政策以及中东形势的发展态势,有助于把握特朗普新任期美国中东政策的走势。在总体原则方面,美国仍将继续在中东维持战略收缩的总体态势,但也将在中东面临更加深刻的矛盾困境。在巴勒斯坦问题上,基于特朗普第一任期的政策基调、2024年竞选主张以及第二任期人事任命等因素,他无疑将继续执行偏袒以色列的巴以政策,并有可能根据中东形势的新变化继续推进“世纪协议”。在伊朗政策方面,美国将重启对伊朗的“极限施压”政策,但也不排除在对伊朗制裁和打压的同时,美国与伊朗进行接触甚至达成协议的可能性。
Strategic contraction from the Middle East constitutes the common goal of the Middle East policy of the three US administrations of Obama,Trump and Biden.The fundamental goal is to get rid of the excessive constraints of the Middle East on US strategic resources and turn more strategic resources to the strategic competition of major powers that threaten the US global leadership.Analyzing the Middle East policy during Trump’s first term and Biden’s period and the development trend of the Middle East situation from the perspective of general principles,the Palestinian-Israeli issue,and the Iranian issue will help to grasp the trend of the US Middle East policy in Trump’s new term.In terms of general principles,the United States will continue to maintain the overall trend of strategic contraction in the Middle East,but will also face more profound contradictions and dilemmas in the Middle East.On the Palestinian issue,based on the policy tone,campaign propositions,and personnel appointments of Trump’s first term,he will undoubtedly continue to implement the Palestinian-Israeli policy that favors Israel,and may continue to promote the“Century Agreement”according to new changes in the Middle East situation.In terms of Iranian policy,the United States will restart the“maximum pressure”policy on Iran,but it does not rule out the possibility of the United States contacting Iran and even reaching an agreement while sanctioning and suppressing Iran.
出处
《思想理论战线》
2025年第1期83-92,141,共11页
Front of Thought and Theory
基金
教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目“百年变局下国际体系与中东地区互动关系研究”(22JJD810023)
上海外国语大学校级重大科研项目“当代中东国家对外关系史研究”(2023)
关键词
特朗普
美国中东政策
战略收缩
“世纪协议”
巴以冲突
伊朗问题
Trump
Middle East policy
strategic contraction
Deal of Century
Palestinian-Israeli conflict
Iranian issue
