摘要
当前,中东正处在地缘格局深度重构期,呈现出多极制衡和阵营对抗趋势并存、和解潮流与局部冲突交织的复合安全态势。地区各国的发展需求虽然在一定程度上抑制了大规模战争的爆发,但对其安全前景的消极预期推升了区域军备竞赛的风险。中东安全的脆弱性和不确定性日益凸显,地区国家面临秩序崩溃与制度重建的战略抉择。2025年特朗普二次出任美国总统,将导致美国的中东政策波动调整,成为影响地区安全形势发展走向的最重要外部变量。从政策重点看,特朗普第二任期在中东安全领域将聚焦整合盟友、打压对手、防止战争等支点性目标,以以色列为核心构建地区力量新平衡、以极限施压为手段催化美国与伊朗关系转折、以绝对实力为依托重建有效军事威慑、以大国竞争为引导调整对中东的战略定位。从预期政策效果看,其高度不确定的“交易型单边主义”和极端利己的“美国优先”导向都将显著放大区域安全风险,加速地区力量格局失衡,削弱区域合作的稳定性,导致地区国家战略自主意愿进一步增强,使中东地区混乱与秩序之争更趋激烈。
The Middle East is currently in a period of profound geopolitical restructuring.It is characterized by a complex security landscape where the trend of multipolar checks-and-balances coexists with bloc confrontations,and reconciliation efforts interweaves with localized conflicts.While the development needs of regional states have somewhat contained the outbreak of large-scale wars,their negative expectations regarding security prospects have heightened the risks of a regional arms race.Regional security is increasingly vulnerable and uncertain,now standing at a strategic crossroads between the collapse of order and institutional reconstruction.At this critical juncture,Trump's second term as President of the United States will trigger fluctuations and adjustments in the US Middle East security policy,which is the most significant external variable affecting the trajectory of the regional security developments.In terms of policy priorities,Trump's second term approach to Middle East security will focus on pivotal goals such as integrating allies,suppressing rivals,and preventing wars.The key objectives include building a new balance of regional power centered around Israel,using maximum pressure as a mean to catalyze a turning point in US-Iran relations,relying on absolute strength to reestablish effective military deterrence,and adjusting strategic positioning towards the Middle East guided by great power competition.Regarding policy outcomes,Trump's highly uncertain “transactional unilateralism ” and extremely self-interested “America First ” orientation will significantly amplify regional security risks,accelerate the imbalance of the regional power structure,weaken the stability of regional cooperation,and further enhance the strategic autonomy of regional countries.This will lead to an even more intense struggle between chaos and order in the Middle East.
出处
《西亚非洲》
北大核心
2025年第3期3-31,167,共30页
West Asia and Africa
关键词
美国的中东安全政策
特朗普
中东安全
中东秩序
大国竞争
US Middle East security policy
Trump
Middle East security
Middle East regional order
great power competition
