摘要
本文针对综合利用水库运行中存在的防洪与兴利矛盾,以多目标决策理论为基础,以分解-聚合方法为工具,建立了一个模型系统进行多目标风险分析。利用这个模型系统,探讨了丹江口水库防洪与兴利矛盾的冲突焦点和对立程度,分析了水库运行的规律与特点。计算了水库防洪,发电与灌溉效益等方案的转换关系、为制定、缓解水库长期运行方案中的矛盾提供了科学依据。
The purpose of this paper is to mitigate the contradiction between flood control and benefit promotion existed in reservoir operation for comprehensive utilization. A model system that consists of the decomposition-aggregation model and the simulation model is developed for multiobjective risk analysis in the operation of Dang Jiang Kou Reservoir. A trade-off among the competing objectives including flood risk, expected value of the annual energy production and irrigation reliability is obtained and the best-compromise solution is suggested, thus alleviating the above-mentioned contradiction.
关键词
水库
风险分析
多目标运行
multipurpose reservoir
long-time operation
multiobjective decision making
risk analysis
