摘要
主要对水文风险、水力风险、经济风险、风险决策和洪水保险五个方面的风险管理方法在防洪减灾中的研究现状进行归纳和评述 .其中水文风险的研究重点分为线型选择、参数估计、风险率计算三部分 ;水力风险的研究主要集中在水库泄洪风险及河道或洪泛区的洪水演进研究 ;经济风险分析主要集中在防洪费用效益的风险分析 ;风险决策研究通常表现为防洪问题的可靠性规划和多目标风险分析两种形式 ;洪水保险的研究主要是利用模拟模型来推导一个最优洪水保险策略 .
The state of risk management methods in flood control and hazard mitigation is reviewed.Hydrological risk analysis includes linetype selection,parameter estimation,risk rate calculation;studies of hydraulic risk place focus on flood discharge risk of reservoirs and flood routing of riverway and flood plains. Economic risk analysis centres on cost benefit risk analysis of flood control. Risk decision making resesrch involves reliability programming and multiobjective risk analysis.In the study of flood insurance mainly simulation model is used to deduce an optimal flood insurance policy. Finally, the tendency of risk management in flood control and hazard mitigation is described.
出处
《水利水电科技进展》
CSCD
2001年第1期11-15,共5页
Advances in Science and Technology of Water Resources
基金
国家自然科学基金重大项目 !(5 0 0 9962 4)
关键词
洪水灾害
防洪减灾
洪水保险
风险管理
flood hazard
flood control and hazard mitigation
flood insurance
risk management
