摘要
针对数字颠覆性创新评估问题,构建了一套基于变革理论的评估框架与方法体系。通过分析数字颠覆性创新的内涵特征与评估需求,确立评估目标与原则,从目标定位、组织实施、风险研判、成果价值与潜在影响五5个维度提出包含19项指标的评估体系,并提出政策对比、访谈咨询、文献计量和多指标综合分析等定性与定量方法,形成可操作的整体评估方案。研究结果强化了对数字创新“过程—结果”互动机制、动态性与跨领域融合等特性的响应,为系统识别和评判数字颠覆性创新活动的战略契合性、实施效能与转型潜力提供了理论依据与实践工具。最后指出,需进一步开展实证检验并探索动态评估机制与智能化评估工具开发等方向。
This paper addresses the issue of evaluating digital disruptive innovation by constructing an assessment framework and methodological system based on the theory of change.Through analyzing the conceptual characteristics and evaluation needs of digital disruptive innovation,it establishes assessment objectives and principles,proposes an evaluation system comprising 19 indicators across five dimensions,objective positioning,organizational implementation,risk assessment,outcome value,and potential impact,and introduces a combination of qualitative and quantitative methods such as policy comparison,expert interviews,bibliometrics,and multi-indicator comprehensive analysis to form an operable overall evaluation scheme.The research results effectively respond to the interactive mechanism between process and outcome,dynamism,and cross-domain integration inherent in digital innovation,providing theoretical foundations and practical tools for systematically identifying and assessing the strategic alignment,implementation effectiveness,and transformational potential of digital disruptive innovation activities.Finally,the study points out the need for further empirical validation and explores directions such as dynamic assessment mechanisms and the development of intelligent evaluation tools.
作者
郭琳娜
闫冬
薛瑞
GUO Linna;YAN Dong;XUE Rui(National Center for Science&Technology Evaluation,Beijing 100081;Institute of Scientific and Technical Information,Beijing Academy of Science and Technology,Beijing 100089)
出处
《全球科技经济瞭望》
2025年第6期64-76,共13页
Global Science,Technology and Economy Outlook
关键词
颠覆性技术创新
数字创新
变革理论
科技评估
disruptive technology innovation
digital innovation
theory of change
technology evaluation
