摘要
为深入挖掘灾害风险传导作用下旱灾风险各子系统合成过程中的不确定性信息,构造了基于两同异反联系数逻辑加法运算的一种集对推理方法,以此方法得到的联系数取其减法集对势用于确定风险矩阵合成系数,构建了集对推理与风险矩阵耦合的旱灾风险评估模型,并应用于宿州市旱灾风险评估。结果表明:宿州市2007—2017年的风险等级值在2.04~2.22波动,2010年等级最高、处于偏旱状态;合成系数随着样本的不确定性信息动态变化,合理量化了风险等级的连续变化过程;该模型基于联系数逻辑运算深入挖掘各子系统作用于综合风险等级的同异反信息,适用于具有多个子系统的风险等级评价问题,有助于进一步推动集对推理在旱灾风险评估中的理论和应用研究。
In order to deeply explore the uncertainty information in the synthesis process of various subsystems under disaster risk transmission,a set pair reasoning(SPR)method based on the logical addition operation of two identity-discrepancy-contrary connection number is constructed.The subtraction set pair potential derived from the computed connection numbers is used to determine the risk matrix synthesis coefficients,thereby establishing a coupled drought risk assessment model integrating SPR and the risk matrix.Applied to the drought risk assessment in Suzhou City of Anhui Province,the results show that the annual risk levels during 2007–2017 fluctuated between 2.04 and 2.22,peaking in 2010 with a mild drought status.The synthesis coefficients,dynamically adjusted in response to sample uncertainty information,reasonably quantify the continuous evolution of risk levels.This model employs logical operations of connection numbers to deeply extract the identity,discrepancy,contrary information of subsystem contributions to the overall risk level,offering a suitable framework for multi-subsystem risk assessment.This study advances both the theoretical and practical application of SPR in the field of drought risk assessment.
作者
吴张莉
王梓宇
金菊良
周亮广
陆慧钰
WU Zhangli;WANG Ziyu;JIN Juliang;ZHOU Liangguang;LU Huiyu(College of Civil Engineering,Hefei University of Technology,Hefei 230009,China;Institute of Water Resources and Environmental Systems Engineering,Hefei University of Technology,Hefei 230009,China)
出处
《灾害学》
北大核心
2025年第4期228-234,共7页
Journal of Catastrophology
基金
国家自然科学基金项目“汉江流域水资源可持续利用及其风险调控”(U2240223)
国家自然科学基金项目“考虑地下水生态水位的淮北平原水资源短缺风险智能识别与评价研究”(52409001)
安徽省自然科学基金项目“江淮丘陵区农业旱灾动态风险定量评估技术研究”(2208085US03)
安徽省自然科学基金项目“灌区水资源调配与退水污染防治关键技术研究”(2308085US06)。
关键词
干旱灾害风险
风险矩阵
集对推理
联系数逻辑运算
减法集对势
宿州市
drought risk
risk matrix
set pair reasoning
logical operation of connection numbers
subtraction set pair potential
Suzhou City
