摘要
【目的】准确和客观地评价区域农业旱灾脆弱性并定量识别其关键驱动因子是当前农业旱灾风险管理和防控的关键任务。【方法】从联系数分量相互迁移转化的物理内涵角度出发,引入半偏联系数,深入挖掘联系数差异度项不确定信息的完整性,将五元联系数的偏同差异度和偏反差异度中的不确定信息整合至偏中差异度中,并考虑不确定性差异度项在微观层次上相互迁移转化的潜在可能性,对其进行更细致的分配,提出差异优化减法集对势方法,进而构建区域农业旱灾脆弱性评价与诊断模型,并在安徽省蚌埠市进行实证研究。【结果】2001—2010年,蚌埠市农业旱灾脆弱性整体呈现出改善的趋势,识别出暴露性和防灾减灾能力子系统是蚌埠市农业旱灾脆弱性的主要驱动因素,并诊断出10个农业旱灾脆弱性指标。【结论】相比于现有方法,应用上述方法得到的评价结果的准确性、客观性和灵敏性更高,可为我国农业旱灾脆弱性评价与诊断研究提供新的视角和方法,有助于制定更具针对性的农业生产政策和抗旱减灾措施,推动农业的高质量发展。
【Objective】To accurately and objectively assess regional agricultural drought vulnerability and quantitatively identify its key driving factors is a key task in current agricultural drought risk management and prevention.【Methods】Starting from the perspective of the physical connotation of mutual migration and transformation of connection number components,semi-partial connection numbers were introduced to thoroughly explore the completeness of the uncertain information in the difference degree term of connection numbers.The uncertain information in the five-element connection number partial identical difference degree and partial opposite difference degree was integrated into the partial neutral difference degree,and it was more finely allocated by considering the potential for mutual migration at the micro level.A difference optimization subtraction set pair potential method was proposed,and a regional agricultural drought vulnerability assessment and diagnostic model was constructed.This model was then empirically applied in Bengbu City,Anhui Province,China.【Results】The overall trend of agricultural drought vulnerability in Bengbu City from 2001 to 2010 improved,with exposure and disaster prevention and mitigation capacity identified as the main driving factors,and 10 indicators of agricultural drought vulnerability were diagnosed.【Conclusion】Compared with existing methods,the evaluation results obtained using the above method demonstrate higher accuracy,objectivity,and sensitivity,which can provide new perspectives and approaches for the assessment and diagnosis of agricultural drought vulnerability in China,and help to formulate more targeted agricultural production policies and drought mitigation measures to support the high-quality development of agriculture.
作者
张诗琪
金菊良
崔毅
周乐
汪洁
吴啸骎
赵齐雅
ZHANG Shiqi;JIN Juliang;CUI Yi;ZHOU Le;WANG Jie;WU Xiaoqin;ZHAO Qiya(College of Civil Engineering,Hefei University of Technology,Hefei 230009,China;Institute of Water Resources and Environmental Systems Engineering,Hefei University of Technology,Hefei 230009,China)
出处
《华北水利水电大学学报(自然科学版)》
北大核心
2025年第5期89-98,共10页
Journal of North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power:Natural Science Edition
基金
安徽省自然科学基金项目(2308085US06)
国家自然科学基金项目(U2240223)
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(JZ2024HGTB0208)。
关键词
农业旱灾脆弱性评价
集对分析
减法集对势
半偏联系数
蚌埠市
agricultural drought vulnerability assessment
set pair analysis
subtraction set pair potential
semi-partial connection number
Bengbu City
