摘要
为客观、准确地评估旱灾风险等级,提出计算五元联系数分量间的灰色关联度量化其关联程度,以此确定联系数差异度分量的分配比例,将包含不确定信息的差异度逐步向确定性的同一度与对立度分配,构建了基于灰色关联度与五元联系数耦合的区域旱灾风险评估模型。在淮北市旱灾风险评估中的应用结果表明:2011—2020年淮北市旱灾风险等级基本处于2~3级之间,保持轻中险的状态,其中2019年旱灾风险等级最高,为3.21级;通过计算子系统减法集对势值,识别出危险性子系统对淮北市旱灾风险评估结果的影响最大;暴露性、灾损敏感性、抗旱能力三个子系统集对势态势稳定在均势与偏同势,对减小淮北市旱灾风险等级发挥了一定作用。
In order to objectively and accurately assess drought risk levels,the grey relational degree is calculated to quantify the relationships among the components of the five-element connection number.Based on this,allocation ratios for the discrepancy component are determined,progressively reallocating its contained uncertain information to the identity degree and contrary degree.A regional drought risk assessment model was constructed by coupling the grey relational degree with the five-element connection number,and was subsequently applied to the drought risk assessment in Huaibei City.The results indicate that from 2011 to 2020,the drought risk level in Huaibei City predominantly ranged between levels 2 and 3,reflecting a mild to moderate risk status,with 2019 exhibiting the highest drought risk level at 3.21.Through the calculation of subtraction set pair potential values for the subsystems,it was identified that the hazard subsystem exerted the greatest influence on the drought risk assessment results in Huaibei City.The set pair potential trends of the exposure,disaster damage sensitivity,and drought resistance capacity subsystems stabilize at equilibrium potential and partial identity potential,each playing a regulatory role in mitigating the drought risk level in Huaibei City.
作者
陆慧钰
王梓宇
金菊良
周亮广
吴张莉
LU Huiyu;WANG Ziyu;JIN Juliang;ZHOU Liangguang;WU Zhangli(college of Civil Engineering,Hefei University of Technology,Hefei 230009,China;Institute of Water Re-sources and Environmental Systems Engineering,Hefei University of Technology,Hefei 230009,China)
出处
《灾害学》
北大核心
2025年第4期196-202,共7页
Journal of Catastrophology
基金
国家自然科学基金项目“汉江流域水资源可持续利用及其风险调控”(U2240223)
国家自然科学基金项目“考虑地下水生态水位的淮北平原水资源短缺风险智能识别与评价研究”(52409001)
安徽省自然科学基金项目“江淮丘陵区农业旱灾动态风险定量评估技术研究”(2208085US03)
安徽省自然科学基金项目“灌区水资源调配与退水污染防治关键技术研究”(2308085US06)。
关键词
旱灾风险评估
减法集对势
联系数
灰色关联度
淮北市
drought risk assessment
subtraction set pair potential
connection number
grey relational degree
Huaibei City
