摘要
针对现代战争愈加呈现出混合战争的趋势,以及交战双方愈加重视综合运用政治、军事、经济等手段的特点,提出一种基于系统动力学的混合战争建模方法。介绍混合战争的定义、起源和影响。提出基于系统动力学的混合战争建模框架,分别介绍混合战争中军事、经济、政治、社会领域建模的基本思路。最后,针对一场虚构的混合战争,建立基于系统动力学的仿真模型,并应用该模型对红蓝双方是否动员进行了博弈分析。仿真分析结果表明,系统动力学用来分析混合战争的可行性和有效性。
In view of the increasing trend of hybrid warfare in modern war and the increasing emphasis of the belligerents on the comprehensive use of political,military and economic means,this paper proposes a modeling method of hybrid warfare based on system dynamics.Firstly,the definition,origin and impact characteristics of hybrid warfare are introduced.Secondly,a hybrid warfare modeling framework based on system dynamics is proposed,outlining the fundamental modeling approaches for the military,economic,political,and social domains within hybrid warfare.Finally,a simulation model based on system dynamics is established for the fictional hybrid warfare,and the game analysis on whether theRed and Blue forcesto be mobilized is carried out by using the model.The simulation analysis results show that the system dynamics can be used to analyze the feasibility and effectiveness of hybrid warfare.
作者
吕学志
程双平
许长朋
王锴
刘长江
LYU Xuezhi;CHENG Shuangping;XU Changpeng;WANG Kai;LIU Changjiang(Unit 32179 of PLA,Beijing 100012,China;Unit 32153 of PLA,Zhangjiakou 075100,China)
出处
《火力与指挥控制》
北大核心
2025年第8期38-46,共9页
Fire Control & Command Control
基金
全军军事理论科研基金资助项目。
