摘要
租售并举的住房制度将深刻影响我国房地产市场,在发展住房租赁市场过程中涉及政府、消费者、企业三方利益相关者。基于利益主体协同演化的视角,构建住房租赁市场发展过程中多主体协同演化博弈模型,通过Vensim软件进行仿真模拟,分析各主体演化路径趋势、识别内部主要驱动因素。仿真结果表明,三方主体最终在政府不监管、消费者倾向于租房、企业主动发展租房业务处达到均衡稳定状态。政府监管所需成本、对企业惩罚力度、企业获取的长期经济效益、短期经济效益是三方演化的主要驱动因素。研究表明,在发展住房租赁市场过程中,政府要强调发展住房租赁市场的重要性,提高消费者及企业此方面意识;发展初期,政府对企业宜强力推动;在中后期,政府可缓和态度,企业将逐步采取主动措施,进而形成健康可持续的住房租赁市场。
The housing system, which will develop rental and selling market together, has a profound impact on China’s real estate market. There are three key stakeholders in developing housing rental market,including government,consumers and companies.From the viewpoint of stakeholder co-evolution,this paper developed a co-evolutionary game model of multiple stakeholders in developing housing rental market. Then simulation analysis was made based on the platform of Vensim,exploring the evolutionary equilibrium and the main driving factors of evolution. The simulation results showed that the housing rental market reach a stable state,in which the government chose supervision,the consumers chose rental house and companies developed rental business initiatively. The government’s supervision cost,the punishment and reward to the company,the long-term and short-term benefits were the main driving force in the evolution system. Finally,the research suggested that government should emphasize the importance of developing housing rental market and raise the awareness of consumers and companies in the whole process;government should take responsibilities in promotion at the early development stage. At the middle and later development stages,government should minimize its influence and companies should play more active role to achieve a healthy and sustainable housing rental market.
作者
郑生钦
徐可
ZHENG sheng-qin;XU Ke(School of Management and Engineering,Shandong Jianzliu University,Jinan 250101,China)
出处
《工程管理学报》
2018年第6期149-154,共6页
Journal of Engineering Management
关键词
住房租赁市场
利益相关者
演化博弈
仿真分析
housing rental market
stakeholder
evolutionary game
simulation analyses
