摘要
中老铁路作为一项重大的跨境基础设施工程,不仅加深了中老两国的经济合作,也为云南省带来了经济发展的新机遇。研究采用普通最小二乘法(OLS)对中老铁路开通前后云南省16个州市的经济数据进行实证分析,探讨了铁路开通对地区经济的总体带动效应,并检验了旅游和贸易作为中介变量的影响。研究发现,中老铁路的运营显著促进了云南省的经济增长,其中旅游业作为中介效应显著,而贸易的中介效应在中老铁路开通前期还未显现。基于实证结果,提出通过中老铁路增强云南省旅游吸引力和改善贸易条件的相关建议,为持续激发中老铁路沿线州市的区域经济潜力,推动云南省经济的持续增长提供理论基础。
The China-Laos Railway,as a significant cross-border infrastructure project,has not only intensified economic cooperation between the two countries but also brought new opportunities for economic development in Yunnan Province.This study employs the Ordinary Least Squares(OLS)method to conduct an empirical analysis of the economic data of 16 prefecture-level cities in Yunnan Province before and after the opening of the China-Laos Railway.The study explores the overall economic impact of the railway's operation on the regional economy and examines the influence of tourism and trade as intermediary variables.The findings reveal that the operation of the China-Laos Railway significantly promotes economic growth in Yunnan Province,with tourism demonstrating a significant mediating effect,while the mediating effect of trade is not evident in the early period following the railway's opening.Based on the empirical results,this paper proposes recommendations to enhance the tourism appeal and improve trade conditions in Yunnan Province through the China-Laos Railway.These suggestions aim to further stimulate the regional economic potential of the cities and prefectures along the railway and promote sustainable economic growth in Yunnan Province.
作者
夏晨兆
周望德
XIA Chenzhao;ZHOU Wangde(School of Business,Yuxi Normal University,Yuxi 653100,Yunnan,China)
出处
《普洱学院学报》
2025年第4期30-39,共10页
Journal of Pu'er University
基金
2025年玉溪市社科联研究项目“玉溪市加快中老铁路沿线综合开发研究”阶段性成果
2025年云南省教育厅科学研究项目“新马泰游客对云南旅游目的地选择意愿及影响因素研究——基于PLS-SEM模型”(2025J0852)阶段性成果
2025年云南省教育厅科学研究项目“基于生态文明的云南口岸经济高质量发展水平测度与趋势研究”(2025J0835)。
关键词
云南省
中老铁路
旅游促进
贸易增长
中介效应
China-Laos railway
Yunnan Province
tourism promotion
trade growth
mediating effect
