摘要
随着中国环境约束的增大和畜产品供需结构的优化,畜产品进口成为保障国内畜产品安全的重要支撑。本研究选取联合国统计署贸易数据库1995—2022年中国畜产品进口贸易相关数据,采用修正后的恒定市场份额模型,系统分析中国畜产品进口贸易演变及驱动因素,研判中国畜产品贸易竞争的优劣势。结果表明:进口引力与出口市场和出口结构的共同作用是促进中国畜产品进口贸易增长的主要因素,市场效应的拉动作用增强,而商品效应正负交替变化,以及“十三五”开始消费需求、进口引力等因素带动进口商品结构集中和进口市场转换。基于此,中国应加大畜牧业科技投入力度,提升畜产品贸易竞争力;加快畜牧业对外开放探索,优化畜产品贸易结构;建立国际畜产品市场监测系统,及时研判畜产品贸易市场形势,促进中国畜牧业国内国际双循环新发展格局的形成。
With the increase of China's environmental constraints and the optimization of the supply and consumption structure of livestock products,the import of livestock products has become an important support to ensure the safety of domestic livestock products.This article selected relevant data on China's livestock products import trade from 1995 to 2022 published in the trade database of the United Nations Statistics Office,a modified constant market share model was used to systematically analyze the evolution and driving factors of China's livestock products import trade,and the advantages and disadvantages of China's livestock products trade competition were studied.The research results indicated that the combined effect of import attraction,export market and export structure is the main factor to promote the growth of import trade of livestock products in China,the pulling effect of market effect is enhanced,while the commodity effect is positive and negative alternately.Since the 13th Five-Year Plan period,consumer demand,import attraction and other factors drive the concentration of import commodity structure and the transformation of import market.Based on this,China should increase investment in animal husbandry technology to enhance the competitiveness of animal products trade;accelerate the exploration of animal husbandry opening up to the outside world and optimize the trade structure of livestock products;establish an international livestock products market monitoring system to timely assess the market situation of livestock products trade,so as to promote the formation of a new development pattern of domestic and international dual circulation in China's animal husbandry industry.
作者
林挺
刘畅
杨昕怡
朱增勇
Lin Ting;Liu Chang;Yang Xinyi;Zhu Zengyong(College of Economics and Management,China Agricultural University,Beijing 100083;Institute of Animal Science,Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Beijing 100193)
出处
《农业展望》
2025年第4期3-12,共10页
Agricultural Outlook
基金
中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项资金“国内外畜产品市场联动机制及风险预警模型研究”(2023-YWF-ZX-11)。
关键词
双循环
畜产品进口
恒定市场份额模型
驱动因素
double circulation
import of livestock products
constant market share model
driving factors
