摘要
新能源电量高占比下,极端气象事件给电力生产带来了极大的风险与挑战。在这些极端气象事件中,极端静稳天气作为一种特殊大气特征,容易导致连续多日新能源持续低出力的极端场景,严重影响新型电力系统长周期供需平衡。针对极端静稳天气造成的电力长周期供需不平衡风险,从优化规划的角度提出风险量化评估与管控方法。首先,定义面向电力安全保供的极端静稳天气,辨识和选取极端场景。然后,基于提取得到的场景进行电力生产模拟,构建电力长周期供需不平衡评价指标体系。在此基础上,提出基于机会约束的极端静稳天气下长周期供需不平衡风险评估模型。最后,将上述模型嵌入传统电力规划模型,实现面向长周期供需不平衡风险管控的长周期灵活性资源优化配置,并基于IEEE RTS-79算例分析论证了所提方法的有效性,并探究了长时储能在管控极端静稳天气下长周期供需不平衡风险方面的作用。
With the high proportion of renewable energy,extreme weather events bring great risks and challenges to power production.Among these extreme weather events,extreme steady weather,as a special atmospheric feature,usually tends to result in continuous low renewable energy output for days,which greatly impacts the long-term supply-demand balance of new power systems.Aiming at the risk of long-term supply-demand imbalance caused by extreme steady weather,a quantitative risk assessment and control method is proposed from the perspective of optimal planning.Firstly,the extreme steady weather for power security is defined,and extreme scenarios are identified and extracted.Then,based on the extracted scenarios,the power production simulation is carried out,and the evaluation index system of long-term power supply-demand imbalance is constructed.On this basis,a risk assessment model of long-term supply-demand imbalance in extreme steady weather based on chance constraints is proposed.Finally,the above-mentioned model is embedded into the traditional power planning model to realize the optimal allocation of long-term flexible resources for the risk management of long-term supply-demand imbalance.Based on the IEEE RTS-79 case analysis,the effectiveness of the proposed method is demonstrated,and the role of long-term energy storage in the risk management of long-term supply-demand imbalance in extreme steady weather is explored.
作者
姜海洋
蒋明华
丁坤
杜尔顺
兰焮尧
方宇晨
张宁
康重庆
JIANG Haiyang;JIANG Minghua;DING Kun;DU Ershun;LAN Xinyao;FANG Yuchen;ZHANG Ning;KANG Chongqing(State Key Laboratory of Power System Operation and Control(Tsinghua University),Beijing 100084,China;Economic and Technological Research Institute of State Grid Gansu Electric Power Company,Lanzhou 730030,China;Laboratory of Carbon Energy,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China)
出处
《电力系统自动化》
北大核心
2025年第4期42-52,共11页
Automation of Electric Power Systems
基金
国家电网公司科技项目(SGGSJY00XXJS2310071)。
关键词
新型电力系统
静稳天气
供需平衡
风险评估
风险管控
长时储能
new poer system
steady weather
supply-demand balance
risk assessment
risk management
long-term energy storage
