摘要
将冰灾造成停电灾难的问题解耦为:从冰雪到冻雨,从冻雨到覆冰,从覆冰到电网故障,从相继故障到大停电的过程。冻雨影响输电线故障率的途径涉及冻雨形成的气象规律;线路覆冰的热学规律;断线倒塔的力学规律。归纳在线评估冻雨风险所需信息,根据气象预报信息和微地形信息计算输电线覆冰厚度,根据线路实测信息在线评估输电线故障率的变化,修改安全分析软件所依据的预想事故集。根据潮流转移的电气规律及系统崩溃的动力学规律,建立冰灾停电风险的早期预警模型。
The evolution process of blackout caused by ice disaster can be divided into four stages：ice and snow leading to freezing rain,freezing rain leading to transmission line icing,transmission line icing leading to power grid fault,and cascading failure leading to blackout.The way freezing rain affects transmission line fault probability involves the meteorological law of sleet forming,the thermodynamics law of transmission line icing,and the mechanical law of transmission line broken and tower collapse.Therefore,the information needed for online evaluation of blackout risk due to freezing rain is summed up first.Then,the ice thickness covered on the transmission line is calculated using weather forecast and micromorphology information.And the online transmission line fault probability,which can be used to update the envisioned fault table of the security stability analysis software,is evaluated using real-time line monitoring information.An early-warning model for blackout due to ice disaster is established finally based on the electrical law of flow transfer and dynamic law of system crash.
出处
《电力系统自动化》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2013年第18期32-41,98,共11页
Automation of Electric Power Systems
基金
国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)资助项目(2013CB228204)
国家自然科学基金重大项目(91024028)
国家电网公司大电网重大专项资助项目(SGCC-MPLG003-2012)
国家电网公司科技项目(YS11002)
江苏省自然科学基金资助项目(BK2011136)
ARC LP120100302
ARC DP120101345~~
关键词
自然灾害
冻雨
覆冰
故障率
在线安全评估
风险预警
natural disaster
freezing rain
icing
fault probability
online security evaluation
risk early-warning
