摘要
大坝的溃决将给人民生命财产带来重大的损失,而溃坝损失评估是大坝风险管理的重要组成部分,可以为风险决策提供重要的理论支撑。介绍了国内外在溃坝损失研究方面的成果与进展,分别从生命损失、经济损失、生态损失等方面对国内外的研究现状进行了阐述,并通过对比分析各模型的评价指标和模拟结果,了解了常用溃坝损失评估模型的优缺点,探讨了实测资料匮乏等客观因素对溃坝损失评估研究的局限。指出:基础数据的可靠性对于溃坝损失评估方法的建立和验证至关重要,历史溃坝资料的匮乏与记载混乱也制约了评估方法的建立;对于各类损失影响因素的提炼与分析是溃坝损失评估的基础,影响因素的量化过程对评估模型的可靠性与准确性有着重要影响;目前国内外开展的溃坝生命损失与经济损失的研究主要基于静态指标,应充分考虑人为干预对溃坝损失评估结果的影响,可基于人类行为和社会组织机制研究溃坝撤离系统动力学特征,探索动态指标与溃坝损失之间的定量关系,建立溃坝损失评估综合指标体系和动态评估模型。
Dam breach would bring great loss to people’s life and properties,further,loss assessment of dam breach is an important part of dam risk management,which can provide important theoretical support for risk decision⁃making.In this study,the research progress of dam breach induced loss around the world was introduced,respectively for loss of life,economic loss,and ecologicalloss.According to the com⁃parison of the evaluation indicators and simulation results for each loss assessment model,the advantages and disadvantages of the established models were studied.Simultaneously,the limitations of objective factors such as lack of measured data on dam breach loss assessment were discussed;in addition,some advices were put forward for the future research work.It is pointed out that:the reliability of basic data is cruci⁃al to the establishment and validation of dam failure loss assessment methods,and the lack of historical dam failure data and confusing re⁃cords also restrict the establishment of assessment methods;the distillation and analysis of various loss influencing factors are the basis of dam failure loss assessment,and the quantification process of influencing factors also has an important impact on the reliability and accuracy of as⁃sessment models;the current domestic and international studies on dam failure loss of life and economic loss are mainly based on static indi⁃cators.The current studies on the loss of life and economic loss of dam failure at home and abroad are mainly based on static indicators,but the influence of human intervention to the assessment results of dam failure loss should be fully considered,and the dynamics of the dam fail⁃ure evacuation system can be studied based on human behavior and social organization mechanisms to explore the quantitative relationship be⁃tween dynamic indicators and dam failure loss,and to establish a comprehensive index system and dynamic assessment model for dam failure loss assessment.
作者
胡亮
钟启明
陈亮
张赏
HU Liang;ZHONG Qiming;CHEN Liang;ZHANG Shang(Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China;Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute,Nanjing 210029,China;Key Laboratory of Failure Mechanism and Safety Control Techniques of Earth-Rock Dam of the Ministry of Water Resources,Nanjing 210029,China)
出处
《人民黄河》
CAS
北大核心
2022年第12期131-138,共8页
Yellow River
基金
国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFC1508604)
国家自然科学基金资助项目(51779153)。
关键词
溃坝
生命损失
经济损失
生态损失
评估方法
研究进展
dam breach
loss of life
economic loss
ecological loss
assessment method
research progress
