摘要
鉴于溃坝生命损失评估的复杂性,借鉴国内外生命损失评估的相关研究成果,研究溃坝时警报与撤离过程,建立了评估暴露人口数量的警报与撤离模型以及死亡率评估模型;基于我国历史溃坝调查资料,提出以溃坝洪水特征为依据的淹没范围分区思想,建立了淹没区划标准及相应死亡率函数,提出适用于我国的溃坝生命损失评估方法及估算公式。实例应用表明,该方法及估算公式能比较客观地评估我国的溃坝生命损失情况。
Research achievements on the estimation of loss of life caused by dam breaks are summarized in this paper, with consideration of the complexity of such estimation. Warning and evacuation processes were studied. Warning and evacuation models as well as a mortality estimation model were established to estimate the number of exposed people. The idea of dividing the hazard zones based on flood characteristics is proposed on the basis of historical data on dam breaks in China. Criteria for dividing the hazard zones and mortality functions were established, as were a method and estimation formulas for estimating the loss of life caused by dam breaks in China. An application shows that the proposed method and estimation formulas can objectively evaluate the loss of lives caused by dam breaks in China.
出处
《河海大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2014年第3期205-210,共6页
Journal of Hohai University(Natural Sciences)
基金
河南省基础与前沿技术研究计划(142300410146)
河南省瓦斯地质与瓦斯治理重点实验室--省部共建国家重点实验室培育基地开放基金(WS2013B02)
河南省教育厅科学技术研究重点项目(13A440322
13A610314)
关键词
溃坝
洪水
生命损失评估
风险人口撤离
溃坝死亡率
刘家台水库
dam break
flood
estimation loss of life
evacuation of risk population
mortality of dam break
Liujiatai Reservoir
