摘要
针对塔吊安全事故频发的现状,通过塔吊安全事故数据探究事故关键致因因素,提出一种基于故障树-贝叶斯网络(FTA-BN)的系统性风险分析方法,从人、设备、管理、环境四大方面识别事故致因。通过扎根理论对塔吊事故数据进行质性分析,提取了29个致因因素构建故障树模型,进一步将其映射为贝叶斯网络模型,结合逆向推理与敏感性分析进行定量评估。结果表明,安全管理制度不完善、未按照专项施工方案实施、塔吊结构/部件故障、违规操作、政府/相关单位监管不到位、安全意识淡薄、交叉作业、未按要求进行设备维保、断绳脱钩这9个关键致因对事故风险影响显著,其中管理因素是系统性风险的核心。
Addressing the frequent occurrence of tower crane accidents,this study investigates critical causation factors through accident data analysis and proposes a systematic risk assessment method integrating Fault Tree Analysis and Bayesian Network(FTA-BN).The research identifies accident causation from four dimensions:human factors,equipment conditions,management practices,and environmental elements.Utilizing Grounded Theory,we conduct qualitative analysis on tower crane accident cases to extract 29 causation factors and construct a fault tree model,subsequently mapped into a Bayesian Network.Quantitative evaluation through reverse reasoning and sensitivity analysis reveals nine critical causation factors with significant risk impacts:incomplete safety management systems,non-compliance with specialized construction plans,structural/component failures of tower cranes,violation operation inadequate governmental/supervisory oversight,insufficient safety awareness,concurrent operations,improper equipment maintenance,wire rope fractures,and hook disengagements.The results demonstrate that management factors constitute the core of systemic risks.
作者
王涵
申建红
张茜
郭明慧
WANG Han;SHEN Jianhong;ZHANG Qian;GUO Minghui(School of Management Engineering,Qingdao University of Technology,Qingdao 266520,China;Research Institute of Construction Credit and Risk Management,Qingdao University of Technology,Qingdao 266520,China)
出处
《山东理工大学学报(自然科学版)》
2026年第3期1-8,共8页
Journal of Shandong University of Technology:Natural Science Edition
基金
国家自然科学基金青年基金项目(72304161)。
关键词
塔吊安全
贝叶斯网络
故障树
事故致因分析
tower crane safety
Bayesian Network(BN)
Fault Tree Analysis(FTA)
accident causation analysis
