摘要
目的分析北京市顺义区流行性腮腺炎(以下简称流腮)的流行特征,为流腮疫情提供防控措施。方法运用描述流行病学方法对2014-2019年中国疾病监测信息报告管理系统中的流腮病例进行分析,发病率的差异采用χ^(2)检验,对2020年流腮的发病趋势预测采用ARIMA模型。结果累计报告流腮病例629例,年均报告发病率为10.08/10万,呈现逐年递减趋势(χ^(2)_(趋势)=62.12,P<0.001);男女性别比为1.61∶1;1~10岁年龄组为高发病人群,占全部病例的68.84%;全年均有发病,有明显季节性,5-8月为发病高峰;以托幼儿童、学生和散居儿童居多;1~10岁组有免疫史394人,其中74.37%的病例有1剂次腮腺炎疫苗接种史,25.63%的病例有2剂次腮腺炎疫苗接种史;根据ARIMA模型对2020年流腮发病数进行预测,全年发病数共56例。结论 2014-2019年顺义区流腮防治工作效果明显,预测2020年顺义区流腮的发病呈下降趋势。
Objective To analyze the epidemic characteristics of mumps in Shunyi district,Beijing,and to provide prevention and control measures for mumps.Methods Descriptive epidemiological method was used to analyze the cases of mumps in the disease surveillance information reporting and management system in China from 2014 to 2019.The difference of incidence was tested byχ^(2) test,and the ARIMA model was used to predict the incidence trend of mumps in 2020.Results A total of 629 cases of mumps were reported,with an average annual incidence of 10.08/100000,and a decreasing trend year by year(χ^(2) _(trend)=62.12,P<0.001).The sex ratio of male to female was 1.61 in the age group of 1-10 years old,accounting for 68.84%of all cases.The incidence occurred throughout the year with obvious seasonality,the peak incidence was from May to August,and most of cases were nursery children,students and scattered children.394 people in the 1-10-year-old group had a history of immunization,of which 74.37%of the cases had a history of one dose of mumps vaccination and 25.63%of the cases had a history of 2 doses of mumps vaccination.According to the ARIMA model,the number of cases of mumps in 2020 was predicted,and the total number of cases in the whole year was 56.Conclusions The effect of prevention and control of mumps in Shunyi district from 2014 to 2019 was effective,and the incidence of mumps in Shunyi district showed a downward trend in 2020.
作者
黄蓉
管文齐
王凤双
肖雷
唐莹
彭枭然
李春龙
HUANG Rong;GUAN Wen-qi;WANG Feng-shuang;XIAO Lei;TANG Ying;PENG Xiao-ran;LI Chun-long(Shunyi District Center for Disease Prevention and Control,Beijing 101300,China)
出处
《首都公共卫生》
2021年第5期290-293,共4页
Capital Journal of Public Health
