摘要
为构建禽流感发生流行预警指标体系,采用文献调研法和德菲尔专家咨询法初拟禽流感暴发预警体系的框架及其指标,应用德菲尔专家咨询法评价预警指标重要性、可操作性和专家权威程度,并用组合权重法确定权重分析指标。确定了禽流感预警6个一级指标(易感动物、饲养管理和气象因素等)以及14项二级指标(免疫效果、环境消毒、温度等),并成功将二级指标分为3档(关键、重要和一般指标)。初步构建了禽流感发生流行预警预指标体系,该体系将为禽流感发生预警提供科学依据。
To establish an early-warning indicator system on occurrence of avian influenza. Literature review and experts consensus were used to formulate early warning system framework and indicators of avian influenza. The importance,maneuverability and expert opinions of early warning system indicators were confirmed by Delphi expert consultation. Furthermore,comprehensive influence of all indicators were compared and classified with AHP.Six first-level indicators（ susceptible animals,Feeding and management Meteorological factors） and 14 second-level（ immune effect,environmental disinfection,temperature etc） were determined,and three class（ key,important and normal） of indicators were divided based on the importance and maneuverability. The early-warning indicator system of avian influenza outbreak is initially established.
出处
《贵州畜牧兽医》
2016年第1期4-7,共4页
Guizhou Journal of Animal Husbandry & Veterinary Medicine
基金
贵州省农业科技攻关项目"贵州省主要人畜共患病综合防控技术研究"黔科合NY字[2011]3061号
贵州省动物疫病与兽医公共卫生重点实验室培育【黔科合计Z字[2011]4008号】
贵州省农业委员会科技计划项"贵州省2014年重大动物疫病省级定点监测"(2014-01号)
关键词
禽流感
预警
德菲尔法
组合权重法
指标
Avian Influenza
Early-Warning
Delphi Method
CW
Indicator
