摘要
目的建立钩端螺旋体病预警指标体系。方法首先采用文献调研和专家会议法拟订钩体病预警指标体系初始框架和指标,然后应用德尔菲法确定预警指标和指标权重,权重法比较各指标间作用的大小。结果共筛选出7个一级预警指标、27个二级预警指标,并针对钩体病流行区及暴发流行潜在风险地区分别建立预警指标体系,同时从理论上探讨了用于征兆预警、早期预警和发布预警三级预警的指标组合模式。结论初步建立了钩端螺旋体病暴发流行预警指标体系,可对该病的预测、预警提供参考。
To develop the index system for early-warning of epidemic or outbreak of leptospirosis,literature review and expert meeting were used to formulate the initiatory framework and indexes,and then Delphi method was used to filter indexes and determine the weighting coefficient.Seven first-class and twenty-seven second-class indexes were selected to develop two kinds of index systems,epidemic areas,and non-endemic areas with potential risk of epidemic or outbreaks.Also,the theoretic models consisted of different indexes combinations were built for conducting the alerts of leptospirosis outbreak or epidemic at three levels： alert before outbreak or epidemic,early warning,and warning announcement by local government.It＇s suggested that the early-warning index system of leptospirosis are established and it could provide a reference for the forecast and warning of leptospirosis outbreak.
出处
《中国人兽共患病学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2010年第10期891-894,共4页
Chinese Journal of Zoonoses
基金
卫生部科研项目“人兽共患病应急预警指标体系及预警方案的研究”资助,马芬、卢亮平、王丽同等贡献
关键词
钩端螺旋体病
预警
德尔菲法
leptospirosis
early-warning
Delphi method
