摘要
目的构建与中国结核病流行特征相适应的监测预警指标体系。方法采用定性和定量研究相结合的方法，首先应用文献研究及专家会议法拟定初始的指标体系框架，然后通过Delphi法构建预警指标并确定各指标的权重。结果两轮Delphi法咨询专家的积极系数分别为87．0％、90．0％；专家权威系数的均数分别为0．850±0．055、0．917±0．017。专家意见集中程度各指标总得分均数分别为7．063±1．435、8．156±0．611；变异系数均数分别为0．352±0．161、0．170±0．057；专家意见协调系数分别为0．322（X^2=499．472，P〈0．05）和0．393（X^2=241．126，P〈0．05）。经过两轮咨询，最终建立包含4个一级指标、9个二级指标、48个三级指标的结核病监测预警指标体系。结论初步建立了中国结核病监测预警指标体系，为该病的预测、预警模型的建立提供参考。
Objective To establish the surveillance and warning index system corresponding with the epidemic characteristics of tuberculosis, in China. Methods Literature review and expert meeting were conducted to formulate the preliminary index system frame. Delphi method was used for screening the index and determining the weight of each index. Results Two-round Delphi consultations were performed. The activity coefficients were 87.0%, 90.0% respectively, with means of authority coefficient as 0.850 ±0.055 and 0.917 ±0.017, respectively. Mean scores of the index were 7.063 ±1.435,8.156 ±0.611 respectively, with the means of coefficient of variation as 0.352±0.161 and 0.170 ±0.057 respectively. The harmony coefficients were 0.322 （X^2=499.472, P〈0.05） and 0.393 （ X^2：241.126, P〈0.05） respectively. After the two-round consultation, the tuberculosis monitoring and warning index system was developed, including 4 first-class indicators, 9 second-class indicators and 48 third- class indicators. Conclusion An index system was established for tuberculosis monitoring and early warning that could provide evidence for tuberculosis prevention and control as well as for the forecasting and warning model of the disease.
出处
《中华流行病学杂志》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2012年第5期505-508,共4页
Chinese Journal of Epidemiology
关键词
结核病
监测预警
指标体系
构建
Tuberculosis
Monitoring early-warning
Index system
Establish
