摘要
本文基于修正的投入产出模型和双比例平衡法(RAS法),利用投入产出表和能源消费数据,对中国23个工业部门的直接和完全碳排放、碳排放的部门间转移和进出口转移进行了定量评价和预测。结果显示:①中国能耗碳排放超过84%来源于工业部门,强度减排和总量减排的重点部门有所趋同;②绝大多数工业部门的引致碳排放远高于直接碳排放,部门间碳转移是构成工业部门完全碳排放的主要部分,不同部门间应负有共同减排责任;③23个工业部门包含5个表观高碳部门、5个传导型高碳部门和6个全过程高碳部门,不同类型部门应采取分类管理策略;④从供给端分析,工业部门间碳转移主要沿能源转化部门、采掘业、流程制造业、离散制造业的路径流动,通过关键路径的筛选可得到优先推进的减排部门组团:⑤通过进出口贸易隐含碳转移,工业部门减少了4.09%的碳排放,优化外贸结构有利于国内碳减排;⑥假定部门间技术经济联系平稳变化,按相关规划预测,2017年中国工业部门平均完全碳排放强度较2010年下降近40%,但完全碳排放总量继续提升,交通运输设备制造业等部门需要重点干预。
Based on the modified input-output model and the RAS method, this study quantitatively calculates direct and total industrial carbon emissions, carbon emissions across sectors and carbon emissions embodied in import and export of 23 industrial sectors in China, by using input-output table and energy consumption data. The results show that： （1）More than 84% energy-related Carbon emissions are contributed by industrial sectors. Carbon intensity abatement and total emissions reduction in the key sectors are relatively consistent. （2）Induced carbon emissions are much higher than direct carbon emissions in most industrial sectors. It indicates that carbon emissions across industrial sectors are the main part of the total carbon emission of the industrial sectors. Therefore, the different industrial sectors are responsible jointly for carbon emission reduction. （3）The 23 industrial sectors are divided into 5 apparent-type ones, 5 transmission-type ones and 6 whole-process-type ones, all types of sectors with high carbon emissions should take classification management strategy. （4）From the perspective of supply direction, carbon emissions transferring across the industrial sectors are mainly along the energy sector-extractive industry-process manufacturing-discrete manufacturing. By selecting key transferring pathways, we can get some carbon emission reduction sector groups with a priority to promote. （5）About 4.09% of domestic industrial carbon emissions are reduced through the embodied carbon transferring in the input and output trade. Optimizing foreign trade structure is good for domestic carbon reduction. （6）This study assumed the technical and economic relations among sectors change smoothly, based on the planning data, compared with 2010, average intensity of total industrial carbon emissions will decrease by 40% in 2017, whereas the total industrial carbon emissions may continue to increase. Especially, some sectors, such as manufacture of transport equipment, need to be interposed emphatically.
出处
《中国工业经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2015年第6期55-67,共13页
China Industrial Economics
基金
国家社会科学基金青年项目"我国工业部门碳排放转移路径及减排成本分担机制研究"(批准号13CJY051)
湖南省社会科学基金一般项目"湖南省节能量交易试点及支撑机制研究"(批准号13YBB139)
关键词
工业部门
碳排放转移
投入产出分析
双比例平衡法
评价预测
industrial sectors
carbon emissions transferring
input-output analysis
biproportional scaling method（RAS）
evaluation and prediction
