摘要
本文运用投入产出法建立行业层面分析框架,估计了中国行业层面碳减排的边际成本和成效,并预测了“十四五”时期的趋势变化。研究发现:一是各行业碳减排的边际减排成本差异巨大,说明行业间减排难度存在差别。二是碳减排边际成本上升的主要原因为排放技术进步,产业结构、中间投入品结构、需求结构等对减排的促进作用不明显。三是2002-2017年,全部行业累计碳减排量约为50.631亿吨,但减排空间呈下降趋势。预计到2025年,我国将累计减排近百亿吨,这充分彰显出中国在履行国际承诺上的负责态度与大国风范。最后基于本文的研究结论,建议中国碳减排应结合“定行业、建机制、差异化减排”三个方面。
The input-output method was used to explore the establishment of an industry-level analysis framework,estimated the marginal cost and effectiveness of industry-level carbon emission reduction in China,and predicted the trend changes in the period of the 14th Five-Year Plan.First,the marginal cost of carbon emission reduction varies greatly among different industries in China,indicating that there are differences in the difficulty of transformation among industries.Second,the main reason for the increase of marginal cost of carbon emission reduction in China is the progress of emission technology,and the promotion of industrial structure,intermediate input structure and demand structure is not obvious.Third,from 2002 to 2017,the cumulative carbon emission and black emission of all industries was about 5.0631 billion tons,but the space for emission reduction showed a downward trend.It is expected that by 2025,China will reduce emissions by nearly 10 billion tons,which fully demonstrates China's responsible attitude and great power demeanor in fulfilling its international commitments.Finally,it is suggested that China's emission reduction strategy should be a combination of“industry identification,mechanism establishment and differentiated emission reduction”.
作者
张柏杨
刘佳颖
朱睿博
张朔
Zhang Baiyang;Liu Jiaying;Zhu Ruibo;Zhang Shuo(The People's Bank of China Sichuan Branch)
出处
《金融发展评论》
2023年第11期30-46,共17页
Financial Development Review
关键词
投入产出
边际减排成本
减排量
减排因素
减排政策建议
Input-Output
Marginal Emission Reduction Cost
Emission Reduction
Emission Reduction Factors
Emission Reduction Strategies
