摘要
目的探讨南昌市2008—2011年梅毒的发病趋势,并进行短期预测,为科学制定梅毒防控措施,合理配置防控资源提供参考。方法根据2008—2011年梅毒报告发病率数据,拟合灰色系统GM(1,1)预测模型,进行回代预测、拟合精度评价和外推预测。结果建立的预测模型为:Y t=-417.640 1 e-0.0534(t-1)+438.380 1,模型的回代拟合精度指标后验差比值C为0.107 6,小误差概率P为100%,拟合精度等级达最好级别。利用建立的模型预测2012—2014年梅毒的报告发病率分别达18.502 2/10万、17.540 2/10万、16.628 1/10万。结论 GM(1,1)模型拟合梅毒的发病率数据结果理想,可用于梅毒发病率的短期预测。
[ Objective ] To analyze the epidemic trends of syphilis in Nanchang City during 2008-2011, carry out the short-term pre- diction, provide the scientific basis for the reasonable distribution of health resource and the formulation of prevention and control measures. [ Methods ] According to the reported incidence rates of syphilis during 2008-2011, the back prediction, fitting precision evaluation and extrapolation forecast were conducted by fitting the prediction model of GM （ 1, 1 ）. [ Results] The established model was as following： Y~ =-417. 640 1 e-~~534ct-~） ＋438. 380 1. The posteriori error ratio C of fitting precision in back prediction was 0. 107 6, and the small error probability P was 100%, which the fitting precision reached the best level. Based on the established model, it is predicted that the annual reported incidence rate is respectively 18. 502 2/lakh, 17. 540 2/lakh and 16. 628 1/lakh from 2012-2014. [ Conclusion] By model GM （ 1, 1 ）, the prediction data of syphilis incidence rate are satisfactory, and it can be used in the short-term prediction of incidence rate of syphilis.
出处
《职业与健康》
CAS
2013年第22期2992-2993,共2页
Occupation and Health
