摘要
目的探讨时间序列分析方法中ARIMA模型在细菌性痢疾发病预测方面的应用,验证分析模型的可行性与适用性。方法利用海南省2000年1月～2009年12月细菌性痢疾发病资料,拟合ARIMA模型,对海南省细菌性痢疾2010年1～9月各月发病率进行预测评价。结果建立ARIMA(1,0,0)模型,预测结果基本符合实际发病率变动趋势,验证了该模型的可用性。结论 ARIMA模型可用于模拟细菌性痢疾发病在时间序列上的变化趋势,进行短期预测。
Objective To explore the application of auto regressive integrated moving average（ARIMA） model of time series on forecast bacillary dysentery and confirm feasibility and applicability.Methods ARIMA model was fitted with data of monthly incidence from Jan.2000 to Dec.2009 for bacillary dysentery and the monthly incidence of Jan-Sep.2010 for bacillary dysentery was predicted and evaluated.Results The model of ARIMA（1,0,0） was established,which was used to verify its usability due to predictive results were basic similar to actual incidence.Conclusion The model of ARIMA can be used to fit trends of incidence for bacillary dysentery on time series and to forecast within short period.
出处
《中国卫生统计》
CSCD
北大核心
2011年第4期417-419,共3页
Chinese Journal of Health Statistics
