摘要
目的探讨我国1996-2009年梅毒的发病趋势,并进行短期预测,为科学制定梅毒防控措施,合理配置防控资源提供参考。方法根据全国1996-2009年梅毒报告发病率数据,拟合灰色系统GM(1,1)预测模型,进行回代预测、拟合精度评价和外推预测。结果建立的预测模型为:x(1)(t+1)=7.5437e0.206t-6.5437,模型的回代拟合精度指标后验差比值C为0.1929,小误差概率P为100%,拟合精度等级达最好级别。利用建立的模型预测2010-2012年全国梅毒的报告发病率分别达25.12/10万、30.86/10万、37.92/10万。结论 GM(1,1)模型拟合全国梅毒的发病率数据结果理想,可用于梅毒发病率的短期预测。
Objective To analyze the trends of syphilis incidence in China during the recent 14 years,to predict the incidence in the short-term future,and to provide a scientific base for reasonable distribution of health resource to prevent and control syphilis. Methods The reported incidence rates of syphilis from 1996 to 2009 were collected to establish GM（1,1） model for prediction.The prognosticating precision was analyzed to evaluate the model. Results The established model was the following： x^（1）（t＋1） =7.5437e^0.206t-6.5437.The prognosticating precision of GM（1,1） was excellent in accordance with the criterion of grey model prognostication assessment.According to the prediction of the established model,the incidence rates in 2010~2012 were 25.12/100,000 30.86/100,000,and 37.92/100,000,respectively. Conclusions The model GM（1,1） is acceptable to analyze the trends of syphilis incidence according to the result of fitness,and the model can be used to predict the trend in short-term future.
出处
《实用预防医学》
CAS
2010年第12期2397-2399,共3页
Practical Preventive Medicine
