摘要
目的探讨1991-2009年5岁以下儿童死亡率的趋势,并进行短期预测,为继续降低5岁以下儿童死亡率提供理论依据。方法根据全国城乡1991-2009年5岁以下儿童死亡率数据,拟合灰色系统GM(1,1)预测模型,进行回代预测、拟合精度评价和外推预测。结果建立的预测模型为:全国x(1)(t+1)=-924.6e-0.065t+985.6,城市x(1)(t+1)=-450.7e-0.046t+471.6,农村x(1)(t+1)=-1 071.7e-0.064t+1 142.8,拟合精度等级全国及农村达最好级别,城市为二级。结论 GM(1,1)模型拟合5岁以下儿童死亡率的数据结果理想,可用于5岁以下儿童死亡率的短期预测。
Objective To explore the feasibility for application of GM （1,1） model to predict child mortality rate under age 5 （U5MR） in China so as to provide the theoretical basis for continuing reducing the U5MR. Methods GM （ 1,1 ） model was established based on the USMR of China from 1991 to 2009. The prognosticating precision was analyzed to evaluate the model. Results The established model was as follows： national areas x〈1） （t ＋ 1） = - 924.6e- 0 065t ＋ 985.6 city x^（1） （t ＋ 1） = - 450.7e-0.046t ＋ 471.6,x^（1）（t ＋ 1）=-1 071.7e-^0.064t ＋ 1 142.8, countryside. The prognosticating precision of GM （1,1） was excellent in accordance with the criterion of grey model prognostication assessment. Conclusions The GM （1, 1） is acceptable to analyze the trends of U5MR according to the result of fitness, and the models can be used to predict the trend in short - term future.
出处
《实用预防医学》
CAS
2012年第1期27-29,共3页
Practical Preventive Medicine
