摘要
以漳河流域岳城水库为例,选取30场实测洪水过程作为典型洪水,分别从放大方法不确定性和典型洪水不确定性角度,分析设计洪水不确定性对水库极限风险的影响。以水库校核洪水位为极限风险控制指标,在给定调度规则下对不同汛限水位方案进行调洪,得到水库调洪最高水位和防洪极限风险率。通过综合分析,认为保守情况下可将主汛期汛限水位抬升至132.50 m(提高0.50 m),冒险情况下可将汛限水位抬升至134.00 m(提高2.00 m)。
Taking Yuecheng reservoir in Zhanghe Basin as a study object,basing on the observed flood hydrograph data（more than 30 series）,the extreme risk affected by uncertainty of design flood was analysis from two aspects of amplification methods and typical flood hydrograph.The highest flood-regulating level of reservoir and extreme risk of exceeding the check flood level are obtained by flood regulating for different limited water level.Through the comprehensive analysis and discussion,the limited water level of YueCheng reservoir could be heightened to 132.50 m（raise 0.50 m） in the stable cases,and could be heightened to 134.00 m（raise 2.00 m） in adventure.
出处
《中国农村水利水电》
北大核心
2011年第2期117-120,共4页
China Rural Water and Hydropower
基金
水利部公益性行业科研专项经费项目(200901030
201001002)
水利部科技推广计划项目(TG1109)
关键词
设计洪水
放大方法
典型洪水
汛限水位
极限风险
design flood
amplification methods
typical flood hydrograph
limited water level
extreme risk
