摘要
洪水灾害是当今世界最严重的自然灾害之一,洪灾经济损失及风险评估是防洪减灾领域的一项基础性工作,而脆弱性的确定是评估模型的关键。文章在对自然灾害脆弱性评估方法总结的基础上,着重对洪水情景模拟中代表脆弱性的灾损率曲线开展探讨,对灾损曲线的起源、建立方法和综合运用的趋势进行研究。国外保险业与政府开展此类工作较早,相比于国外已经取得的丰硕研究成果而言,国内灾损率研究远远不能为决策提供有效的指导,这与我国面临的巨大洪灾风险不相称。政府、保险等部门与科研工作急需结合起来,填补城市洪灾脆弱性研究空白,多参数综合调研、深入各种承灾体内部系统而细致地开展灾损率调查,对于减少未来洪灾影响,具有非常重要的实际意义。
Flood is one of the most serious natural disasters in the world. The evaluation on economic loss or risk from flood disasters is the basic task in the domain of flood prevention and disaster reduction, and the research on vulnerability is key to the evaluation. This paper briefly describes the methods of vulnerability assessment, emphasizing on stage-damage curves. The origin, the methods to structure them and the compositive application are discussed then. Compared to the rich research results overseas on the damage curves, the research on vulnerability is far from enough in China yet and the application at a lower level can neither satisfy the damands for decision-support, nor correspond to the high flood risks in China. At present, scientific research, insurance and government should cooperate in the vulnerability investigation in order to reduce the influence of floods.
出处
《地理科学进展》
CSCD
北大核心
2009年第1期41-46,共6页
Progress in Geography
基金
国家自然科学重点基金项目(40730526)
国家自然科学基金项目(40571006)
上海市重大科技攻关项目(05DZ12007)
关键词
洪水
脆弱性
灾损曲线
风险
经济损失
flood
vulnerability
stage-damage curve
risk
economic loss
