摘要
利用潍坊市1984—2007年暴雨洪涝灾情数据,基于GIS技术结合模糊综合评价方法确定了灾害综合评价指数,根据灾损率指标与灾害综合评价指数得到潍坊市农业经济损失率评估模型。模型表明灾害综合评价指数与农业经济损失率具有较好的线性相关关系,相关系数达0.842。并对潍坊市一次暴雨洪涝灾害进行评估,验证该模型精度。与实际灾情数据对比,相对误差最小值为15.37%,最大值为21.29%,模拟结果与历史灾情数据基本一致。
Based on the combination of GIS skill with the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, the flood data during 1984-2007 of Weifang city, Shandong province were used to determine the compre- hensive disaster evaluation index. Moreover, the agricultural economy loss rate assessment model in Wei- fang was obtained by disaster loss rate index and the comprehensive disaster evaluation index determined above. The model demonstrates that the disaster loss rate has a good correlation with the evaluation index, with coefficient R reaching 0. 842. Furthermore, the disaster loss statistics for error was calculated and analyzed by taking a heavy rain flood process as an example. The result showed that the minimal error is 15.37%, while the maximal one is 21.29%. The simulation result is almost the same as the historical data.
出处
《气象科学》
北大核心
2015年第2期189-194,共6页
Journal of the Meteorological Sciences
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(41175077
41330529)
黔科合重大专项字([2011]6003)
江苏省普通高校研究生科研创新计划项目(CXZZ12_0507)
关键词
暴雨洪涝
模糊综合评价方法
GIS
评价指数
农业损失评估
Storms and floods
Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method
GIS
Evaluation index
Agricultural loss assessment
