摘要
选取黑龙江省1971-2005年35年大风资料,分析了78个市(县)大风的时空分布特征,运用信息扩散理论的计算方法得出发生不同大风日数的概率风险估计值,并用GIS技术制成风险图并进行区划。研究表明:①黑龙江省大风20世纪70、80年代最多且波动性较大,90年代至20世纪初明显减少,并趋于稳定;大风多发在春季,是造成春旱、春季火灾的主要原因。②年总大风日数,高值区多分布在松嫩平原、三江平原,低值区以大兴安岭、伊春、牡丹江地区为主。③以信息扩散理论计算方法得出发生大风为1 d、2 d、3 d、4 d的概率风险估计值,大风风险高值区在黑龙江省中南部自西向东呈带状分布,北部、中北部、西部及南部为风险低值区。运用信息扩散理论首次实现对黑龙江省不同大风日数进行风险评估,其具有所需资料少,并可实现对市(县)以下地域单元不同灾害的发生风险及损失风险评估的优点。
This paper calculates the risk probability of strong wind by information diffusion theory,draws the risk zoning map by GIS technology,and then analyses the temporal and spatial distribution of strong winds in 78 counties or cities of Heilongjiang Province during 1971-2005.The results are shown as follows.（1） There were fluctuations of strong wind occurrence in Heilongjiang in the 1970s and 1980s.The occurrence of strong winds has been decreased noticeably from the 1990s to the early 21st century.Strong winds occurred mostly in spring,which was the main reason having drought and fire risks.（2） The high values of the number of strong wind days were mainly observed in Songnen plain and Sanjiang plain,and the low values appeared in Da Hing-gan,Yichun and Mudanjiang.（3） The strong wind risk probabilities of 1d,2d,3d and 4d have been calculated by information diffusion theory.The areas with high risks were distributed in the central-southern parts of Hei-longjiang as a zone from west to east,and those with low values were located in the northern,central-northern,western and southern parts.This paper takes the advantages of information diffusion theory,which requires less information and can evaluate the risks and loss risks.
出处
《地理科学进展》
CSCD
北大核心
2011年第7期899-905,共7页
Progress in Geography
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(40771195)
哈尔滨市科技创新项目(2007RFXXS029)
关键词
大风
时空分布
信息扩散
黑龙江
windy day； spatial-temporal distribution； information diffusion； Heilongjiang
