摘要
伴随着城市的快速发展,城市面临的火灾危险性及其造成的损失越来越大,如何根据火灾发生规律研究预测火灾的发生是关键的问题。本文对火灾发生的季节和区域规律进行研究,在灰色系统理论中的GM(1,1)模型基础上利用等维灰数递补GM模型对城市火灾发生的规律进行了预测与分析,计算结果表明,预测值与实际情况基本一致,具有一定的指导意义。
Following the fast development of city, ＂hazard and loss of fire are becoming morn and more severe to city. How to forecast the occurrence of fire is a key item to be studied. The occurrence rules of fire are studied from season and district factors in this paper. Based on GM（1,1） model, gray equi-dimensional GM model is used to forecast and analyze fire rules. The results indicate that forecasting value is consistent with actual value. And it can guide the urban fire management.
出处
《中国安全生产科学技术》
CAS
2006年第6期31-34,共4页
Journal of Safety Science and Technology
