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基于Visual Modflow和灰色理论的铝土矿矿井涌水量预测 被引量:4

Water inflow forecast of bauxite mine based on visual modflow and grey theory
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摘要 为了更为准确地在时间和空间上对矿井涌水量进行预测评价,预防矿井突水事故的频繁发生,针对南川铝土矿575主平窿区域的水文地质条件,利用数值模拟软件Visual Modflow,建立了该区域的水文渗漏概念模型.通过模型求解和运行结果的可视化表达,最终得出研究区域内全年各时期的矿井涌水流量值,明确了涌水量随季节的变化情况.利用灰色理论GM(1,1)模型对单个钻孔附近区域的涌水量进行动态预测,对时间t和流量Q的函数关系进行了拟合.研究结果表明,研究区涌水量全年变化不大,季节性变化较明显,最大2397m3/d,最小663m3/d,7月份左右达到极值;随着时间的推移,钻孔5003附近区域的日涌水量将会稳定在47~50m3/d左右,在预测时间内涌水量平均值为47.25m3/d.为该矿山制定合理有效的矿井治水措施提供了可靠的依据. In order to predict and evaluate inflow of water of the mine more accurately in the time and in the space, prevent water -inrush accident which occurred in mine frequently, according to hydro geological conditions of 575 main adit area of Nanchuan bauxite, hydrological leakage conceptual model of this mine was established by using numerical simulation software Visual Modflow. Through visualization expression of operation results and model solution, the flow rate of the study area in every period during the whole year was obtained finally, and the situation of inflow of water which changed along with season was clarified. The grey theory GM ( 1, 1 ) model was used to dynamically predict inflow of water in the vicinity of a single drill hole, then the fitting to functional relations of time t and the current capacity Q was carried out. The results show that the inflow of water change little throughout the year in the research area, its seasonal variation is obvious, the maximum 2 397 m3/d, the minimum 663 m3/d, and reach their extreme points around in July; with the passage of time, daily water inflow of drilling 5003 neighbouring areas will be stable at about 47 - 50 m3/d, an average value of water inflow will be 47.25 m3/d in predicting period. Research conclusions of this article provide a reliable basis for reasonable and effective formulation of water - control measures in the mine.
出处 《矿业工程研究》 2011年第3期43-47,共5页 Mineral Engineering Research
基金 国家自然科学基金资助项目(50774092) 全国优秀博士学位论文专项资金资助项目(200449)
关键词 VISUAL MODFLOW 数值模拟 灰色理论GM(1 1)模型 涌水量预测 Visual Modflow numerical simulation grey theory GM ( 1, 1 ) model water inflow forecast
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