摘要
根据灰色理论的预测基本原理及数学建模方法，建立ＧＭ（１，１）火灾事故率－时间预测模型．结合微机技术，针对香港１９７７～１９８１年火灾事例数据，研究了该地区火灾事故的发生规律，并对其发展趋势进行了预测，为制定正确地防止火灾发生的决策提供了重要的参考依据．此外，还对预测过程中值得注意的问题进行了讨论．
Based on the prediction principal of Grey System Theory and the math modeling method, a GM(1,1) model is introduced for the prediction between fire accident value and time. The fire accident occuring regularity is discussed and the development tendency is predicated combined with the fire data in Hong Kong from 1977 to 1980 which will be an important reference for the decision of fire accident provention.
出处
《武汉城市建设学院学报》
1997年第1期46-50,共5页
Journal of Wuhan Urban Construction Institute
