摘要
基于信息熵分析了城市能源供应结构与能源消费结构的多样性,提出了生态城市能源结构优化的基础判据和约束判据。以厦门市为例,分析了城市能源结构自然演变趋势的缺陷,提出了实现生态城市建设的能源结构优化的控制方案,并判断其优化效果。结果表明,2020年前,基础情景下的厦门市能源供应结构多样性将减少,能源消费结构退化较显著,尤其是2015年前退化趋势加剧,且远远超过结构优化判据的约束条件。而通过采取提高能源生态效率,清洁燃料替代,新能源和可再生能源开发与利用,机动车用能调整强化等控制措施,2010年后厦门市未来能源结构总体上将明显优于系统自然演变结构,同时满足环境容量约束与倍数因子约束条件,从而为该市实现生态城市建设目标奠定基础。
The present paper intends to report the authors＇ study on the approach to optimization of energy structure in eco-urban construction. So far as we know, there indeed exists the complexity of energy types and diversities of energy consumption of economic sectors. The current energy structure diversity can also acts as a measure of deciding how evenly energy is distributed across channels in urban economical system. Changes in diversity of energy structure in some regions over time determine the direction of their economic evolution. Therefore, this paper first of all has given a highly systematic analysis on the diversity of energy supply structure and its consumption demand structure in eco-city based on the information entropy. Then, it has described and reviewed the evaluation criteria for the optimization of energy system structure, which should indeed be improved when the diversity of energy system structures is to be evaluated. The paper thinks it necessary to satisfy the restraint of environmental capacity and ecological efficiency, To make the research more persuasive, the authors took Xiamen City as a case for our study so as to put forward and assess the controlling effects of optimizing energy system structure compared with the spontaneously changing trends of such structure known as the basic scenario. The results show that, with the basic scenario, the diversity of energy supply structure in Xiamen would be decreasing, whereas the consumption demand structure would be worsening, especially before 2015. If so, the evaluation standards for optimization won＇t be reached. And, the future energy system struc- ture of Xiamen after 2010 wouldn＇t be better than that it is now if there were no effective control measures taken, including the increase of ecological efficiency of energy consumption with natural gas being the main energy form, and development and utilizing the new and regenerative energy, saving the energy consumption of traffic. Therefore, it is of great urgency to set more strict rules to protect the environment and heighten the ecological efficiency. All in all, the optimizing measures will be the basis of eco-urban construction.
出处
《安全与环境学报》
CAS
CSCD
2005年第6期54-59,共6页
Journal of Safety and Environment
基金
国家重点基础研究发展计划(973)(2005CB724204)
高等院校优秀青年教师教学科研奖励计划
关键词
环境科学
生态城市
能源供应结构
能源消费结构
多样性
优化
环境约束
倍数因子约束
environmental science
eco-city
energy supply structure
energy demand structure
diversity
optimization
environmental restraint
ecological efficiency restraint
