摘要
从我国目前实际发展现状来看,只有能源结构与产业结构协调发展、共同调整,才能实现经济增长和保障能源安全的目标。运用灰色系统理论的灰色关联分析方法建立能源结构-产业结构协调度定量评价模型,引入熵权法客观赋权,根据各个指标值的变异程度,引用信息熵所反映数据本身的效用值来计算指标的权重系数,有效地避免了由于人的主观因素而形成的权重分配偏差。研究表明从1990年至2007年之间,中国的能源结构-产业结构协调度值经历了增长———下降———再增长的波浪演进过程,目前的能源结构与产业结构并没有达到充分的良性互动作用。研究结论为中国能源结构-产业结构协调度评价的解析化、定量化提供了有力的手段和理论参考依据。
It is essential to achieve the aims of economic growth and energy security together through the energy structure and industry structure coordinated development in the present posture of economy and technology. With the grey correlation methods of the grey system theory,the paper studies on the coordination degree quantitative models of energy structure and industry structure. According to the variation of each index, the weight coefficients in the model are derived from the avail value of data reflected by the information entropy, the subjective influence of weight allocation can be avoided effectively. The analysis results of coordination degree by the method of entropy - weighted gray correlation analysis according to the data from 1990 to 2007 had shown the evolution process of coordination degree, updown- up,there is no good reciprocity effect between the energy structure and industrv structure, the proposed model was reasonable and the evaluation precision of the grey correlation analysis method can be increased.
出处
《环境保护科学》
CAS
2009年第4期102-104,共3页
Environmental Protection Science
基金
国家自然科学基金(59808013)
关键词
能源结构
产业结构
熵权
灰色关联分析
Energy Structure Industry Structure Weighted Entropy Grey Correlation Analysis
