摘要
我国国民经济正在呈现快速增长态势,由于能源技术相对落后,能源加工及利用效率相对较低,使得我国能源供应面临巨大压力。为探索低碳发展对能源环境的影响,以上海为例,利用LEAP模型对“零方案”情景(BAU)和低碳发展情景下的能源消费及大气污染物排放量进行了预测。研究结果表明,实施低碳发展不仅可有效缓解能源供应压力,明显遏止本地大气污染物排放,改善环境空气质量,而且可减缓CO2排放增长速度。上海案例研究结果显示,低碳发展与末端治理相结合,2020年上海市的能源消费总量将比基础情景减少18%,常规大气污染物和碳排放状况也得到改善,CO2、SO2和PM的排放总量分别比基础情景下2020年的排放量减少了20%、72%和78%。低碳发展对我国中长期能源环境建设具有显著的多重正效应。
As the economy presents a fast growth tendency, China is facing great pressure in energy supply due to the out-of-date energy technologies, as well as the relatively low efficiency of energy transformation and utilization. In order to investigate the effect of low carbon development on energy supply and environment impact, this study, taking Shanghai as a case study, forecasts the energy demand, local air pollutant and CO2 emissions in BAU and low carbon development scenarios by using the LEAP model. The results show that the implementation of low carbon development not only depressurizes the pressure of energy supply, reduces the emission of local air pollution obviously and improves the local air quality, but also mitigates CO2 emission. The outcome of Shanghai case study indicates that by combining low carbon development with the end-pipe technologies, the total energy demand in Shanghai will be reduced by 18% in 2020 in comparison with BAU scenario. The local air pollutants emission and carbon emission will be ameliorated as well. The total emissions of CO2, SO2 and PM will be reduced by 20%, 72%, and 78% respectively in 2020 in low carbon development scenarios. Low carbon development has significant and positive effect on the long-term construction of energy and environment in China.
出处
《能源研究与信息》
2004年第3期137-145,共9页
Energy Research and Information
基金
美国能源基金会(G-0212-06632)
关键词
低碳发展
LEAP模型
能源政策
大气污染物排放
二氧化碳排放
low carbon development
leap model
energy policy
local air pollutants emission
carbon dioxide emission
