摘要
本文对目前我国地震危险性分析中普遍采用的概率方法,即洪华生模型进行了分析和评述。指出上述方法忽略了断层间的相互影响;将未来大震看作小概率事件是对古登堡震级与频次关系的误解;同时,该方法中极值理论的时间概念是不可靠的。
The calculating metnod-A.D. Kinreghian model, which which was commonly used in the seismic damage analysis in the country, has been analysed and appraised. It is pointed out that the method mentioned above neglected the interference between the faults. It also considered there is a misunderstanding for the relation between Gutenberg magnitude and grequency, as the method took the future large earthquakes as a small probability event. Meanwhile, the idea of time in extreme theroy of the method is not reliable.
出处
《内陆地震》
1989年第1期17-21,共5页
Inland Earthquake
关键词
地震
危险性
概率
断层
分析法
Seismic damage Probability Fault Gutenberg formula Kinreghian model
