摘要
将某一地震带在强震前某一时期内发生的地震,按其面波震级大小自大到小排列,并以N=2、3、4、……来累计频度,采用公式logN=a-bM计算a、b,从而计算出第一个地震的震级M_1,这就是未来可能发生地震的震级。通过对川滇地区和华北地区的九次近期强震进行计算,结果表明,在震级测定误差范围(±0.3级)内,上述的M和logN之间具有很好的线性关系,这就为地震预报和地震区划中定量计算未来地震震级提出了一个新的方法。
The magnitude of a probable forthcoming earthquake can be taken as the magnitude M1 of the first event in a sequence, which is calculated through the formula logN = a-bM, with an accumulated frequency N = 2, 3, 4,…and a MS magnitude order from large events to small ones during a certain period before a strong earthquake along a seismic belt. Through calculations for the nine recent strong earthquakes in Sichuan-Yunnan Area and in North China, the obtained results indicate that a very nice linear relation can be found between the above M and logN within the error range (±0.3) for magnitude determinations. Consequently, a new method has been presenled for the quantitative magnitude calculation of forthcoming earthquakes.
出处
《地震研究》
CSCD
北大核心
1989年第3期219-225,共7页
Journal of Seismological Research
关键词
地震预报
震级
计算
Accumulated frequency, Magnitude, Recurrence period, Earthquake Prediction, Seismic zoning
