摘要
一、引言 极值理论是概率论中的一个重要分支,在许多领域已经广泛应用。例如,研究洪水的统计规律和洪水预报,研究地震活动性等。本文在进一步分析地震过程和过去工作的基础上,对极值分布函数进行了修改,应用新的分布函数,用于偿试中长期地震预报。
The modified form of the distribution function of extreme values of earthquakes has been obtained on the basis of analysis of earthquake processes.The new distribution function G_(1)(X)=e^(-α(e^(-βx)-e^(-βx)_(2))) of extreme values is more suitable to the actual earthquake data.By using the new distribution function the mean periods of earthquake occurrences and the probable upper limits x_(2) of greatest earthquake magnitude for some seismic zones in China have been computed.The probability of the earthquakes which will occur during the coming five years in such seismic zones was estimated by examing the mean periods of earthquake occurrences and the case of the past earthquakes.The method of estimating the probability of earthquake occurrences has been checked by the earthquake data during the past seventeen years.In order to evaluate the degree of effectiveness of such earthquake prediction we introduce an index number.
作者
陈培善
林邦慧
CHEN PEI-SHAN;LIN PANG-HUEI(Institute of Geophysics,Academia Sinica)
出处
《地球物理学报》
1973年第1期6-24,共19页
Chinese Journal of Geophysics
