Based on the domestic and foreign related research methods, the life meteorological index forecasting system of Wuhu City was compiled using database and network as well as computer language. The system realized the a...Based on the domestic and foreign related research methods, the life meteorological index forecasting system of Wuhu City was compiled using database and network as well as computer language. The system realized the automation process for the generation of life index forecasting products from local situation of Wuhu City and forecasting data, which could get the latest service products dispensing with manual intervention. The development of the system not only made the operation process of the life meteorological index of Wuhu City more time-saving and efficient, but also made the results more scientific and rigorous.展开更多
The model for forecasting the test data on mechanical products is established in the application of the grey system theories. A new formula of the background value is introduced into the model. The result of an exampl...The model for forecasting the test data on mechanical products is established in the application of the grey system theories. A new formula of the background value is introduced into the model. The result of an example shows the method can reduce test expense and enhance the precision of forecasting.展开更多
Through the failure mechanism analysi s and simulation test of a certain kind of detonator,this paper confirms the str ess level of the stepping stress acceleration life test of the detonator,and t hen e stablishes th...Through the failure mechanism analysi s and simulation test of a certain kind of detonator,this paper confirms the str ess level of the stepping stress acceleration life test of the detonator,and t hen e stablishes the data processing mathematical model and storage life forecasting m ethod.At last,according to the result of the stepping stress acceleration lif e test of the detonator,this paper forecasts the reliable storage life of the detonator under the normal stress level.展开更多
目的分析1990—2021年中国常见消化系统恶性肿瘤伤残调整寿命年(disability-adjusted life year,DALY)归因于人口老龄化的比例,预测2022—2046年DALY归因于人口老龄化的比例及其趋势。方法基于2021年全球疾病负担研究(Global Burden of ...目的分析1990—2021年中国常见消化系统恶性肿瘤伤残调整寿命年(disability-adjusted life year,DALY)归因于人口老龄化的比例,预测2022—2046年DALY归因于人口老龄化的比例及其趋势。方法基于2021年全球疾病负担研究(Global Burden of Disease Study 2021,GBD 2021),选择1990—2021年中国≥25岁人群食管癌、胃癌、结直肠癌、胰腺癌、肝癌、胆囊和胆道癌的DALY数据,采用年龄-时期-队列模型预测2022—2046年恶性肿瘤的DALY,将1990—2046年DALY的变化分解为人口数增长、人口老龄化和年龄别DALY率变化,分析DALY变化归因于人口老龄化的比例及其变化趋势。结果1990—2021年中国25岁以上人群食管癌、胃癌、结直肠癌、胰腺癌、肝癌、胆囊和胆道癌DALY的变化率分别为18.20%、-0.34%、98.10%、164.16%、58.21%和90.62%。参考2021年,1990年6种恶性肿瘤DALY变化归因于人口老龄化的比例为-38.32%~-19.72%,归因比例前三位的癌种依次是胃癌(-38.32%)、食管癌(-38.07%)、胆囊和胆道癌(-29.78%)。2021—2046年预计上述6种恶性肿瘤DALY的变化率依次为20.72%、11.50%、58.19%、57.38%、21.36%和48.39%。参考2021年,2046年6种恶性肿瘤DALY变化归因于人口老龄化的比例为18.82%~47.83%,归因比例前三位的癌种依次是胆囊和胆道癌(47.83%)、结直肠癌(43.07%)和胰腺癌(38.76%)。2022—2046年,6种恶性肿瘤DALY变化归因于人口老龄化的比例将继续上升(P<0.001)。结直肠癌和胰腺癌归因于人口老龄化的比例和年龄别DALY率的比例均为正值且呈上升趋势(P<0.001),最终将推动DALY进一步增加。结论人口老龄化已成为中国常见消化系统恶性肿瘤DALY增长的主要驱动因素,未来对结直肠癌、胰腺癌DALY的影响突出,应制定针对性防控策略,积极应对人口老龄化。展开更多
文摘Based on the domestic and foreign related research methods, the life meteorological index forecasting system of Wuhu City was compiled using database and network as well as computer language. The system realized the automation process for the generation of life index forecasting products from local situation of Wuhu City and forecasting data, which could get the latest service products dispensing with manual intervention. The development of the system not only made the operation process of the life meteorological index of Wuhu City more time-saving and efficient, but also made the results more scientific and rigorous.
文摘The model for forecasting the test data on mechanical products is established in the application of the grey system theories. A new formula of the background value is introduced into the model. The result of an example shows the method can reduce test expense and enhance the precision of forecasting.
文摘Through the failure mechanism analysi s and simulation test of a certain kind of detonator,this paper confirms the str ess level of the stepping stress acceleration life test of the detonator,and t hen e stablishes the data processing mathematical model and storage life forecasting m ethod.At last,according to the result of the stepping stress acceleration lif e test of the detonator,this paper forecasts the reliable storage life of the detonator under the normal stress level.
文摘目的分析1990—2021年中国常见消化系统恶性肿瘤伤残调整寿命年(disability-adjusted life year,DALY)归因于人口老龄化的比例,预测2022—2046年DALY归因于人口老龄化的比例及其趋势。方法基于2021年全球疾病负担研究(Global Burden of Disease Study 2021,GBD 2021),选择1990—2021年中国≥25岁人群食管癌、胃癌、结直肠癌、胰腺癌、肝癌、胆囊和胆道癌的DALY数据,采用年龄-时期-队列模型预测2022—2046年恶性肿瘤的DALY,将1990—2046年DALY的变化分解为人口数增长、人口老龄化和年龄别DALY率变化,分析DALY变化归因于人口老龄化的比例及其变化趋势。结果1990—2021年中国25岁以上人群食管癌、胃癌、结直肠癌、胰腺癌、肝癌、胆囊和胆道癌DALY的变化率分别为18.20%、-0.34%、98.10%、164.16%、58.21%和90.62%。参考2021年,1990年6种恶性肿瘤DALY变化归因于人口老龄化的比例为-38.32%~-19.72%,归因比例前三位的癌种依次是胃癌(-38.32%)、食管癌(-38.07%)、胆囊和胆道癌(-29.78%)。2021—2046年预计上述6种恶性肿瘤DALY的变化率依次为20.72%、11.50%、58.19%、57.38%、21.36%和48.39%。参考2021年,2046年6种恶性肿瘤DALY变化归因于人口老龄化的比例为18.82%~47.83%,归因比例前三位的癌种依次是胆囊和胆道癌(47.83%)、结直肠癌(43.07%)和胰腺癌(38.76%)。2022—2046年,6种恶性肿瘤DALY变化归因于人口老龄化的比例将继续上升(P<0.001)。结直肠癌和胰腺癌归因于人口老龄化的比例和年龄别DALY率的比例均为正值且呈上升趋势(P<0.001),最终将推动DALY进一步增加。结论人口老龄化已成为中国常见消化系统恶性肿瘤DALY增长的主要驱动因素,未来对结直肠癌、胰腺癌DALY的影响突出,应制定针对性防控策略,积极应对人口老龄化。
