摘要
为实现经济成本最小化的电网调控策略的精确控制,提出一种基于多时间尺度分析的全生命周期管理技术。通过整合短期、中期和长期调控行为数据,构建行为预测模型与优化框架。对构建的模型和调控策略进行仿真实验与算例分析,并对其有效性进行验证。该预测模型对光伏和风电功率预测的平均准确率分别为97.53%和96.27%;系统日运行总成本为1 386.32元;电网调控策略能适应负荷端的需求变化合理分配功率;3个调控阶段的预测相对误差逐级减小,实时调控阶段最小相对误差为0.26%。结果表明:基于全生命周期管理的多时间尺度调控技术能够显著提升调控行为的规划性与精准性。该技术的应用不仅能提升电网调控能力,而且可为军工领域的电力保障提供稳定支持,确保关键设施的能源供应安全。
In order to realize the precise control of power grid regulation strategy with minimum economic cost,a life cycle management technology based on multi-time scale analysis is proposed.By integrating short-term,medium-term and long-term regulatory behavior data,a behavioral prediction model and optimization framework are constructed.Simulation experiments and example analysis are carried out to verify the effectiveness of the proposed model and control strategy.The average accuracy of PV and wind power prediction is 97.53%and 96.27%respectively,the total daily operation cost of the system is 1386.32 yuan,and the grid control strategy can adapt to the load demand changes and allocate power reasonably;The relative prediction errors of the three regulation stages decrease gradually,and the minimum relative error of the real-time regulation stage is 0.26%.The results show that the multi-time scale control technology based on life cycle management can significantly improve the planning and accuracy of the control behavior,and the application of this technology can not only improve the control ability of the power grid,but also provide stable support for the power security in the field of military industry to ensure the energy supply security of key facilities.
作者
陈志伟
李谦
蓝天
温立君
王振宇
袁树森
Chen Zhiwei;Li Qian;Lan Tian;Wen Lijun;Wang Zhenyu;Yuan Shusen(Power Dispatch Control Center of Guangdong Power Grid Co.,Ltd.,Guangzhou 510220,China;Nanjing NARI Information and Communication Technology Co.,Ltd.,Nanjing 211100,China)
出处
《兵工自动化》
北大核心
2025年第9期50-56,共7页
Ordnance Industry Automation
基金
中国南方电网有限责任公司信息化项目(036000HK23120003)。
关键词
多时间尺度
电网调控
全生命周期
优化策略
功率预测
multiple time scales
power grid regulation and control
full life cycle
optimization strategy
power forecasting
